DDR memory prices - two scenarios?

I've been thinking about changing my memory and whether to take advantage of one of the rebate offers out there, but not really wanting to spend the money until August. So the question is whether DDR memory prices are likely to fall or rise over the next few months? As I see it, there are two possible scenarios:

1) With the switch to AM2, the bottom drops out of the DDR market. Since the memory market is extremely volatile, manufacturers and suppliers simply race to get rid of stock rather than risk getting stuck with a loss. DDR prices fall.

2) Increasingly limited supply means that suppliers (especially the big stores) have a stranglehold on the DDR market, realizing that they can charge a premium for those users who want new memory without upgrading their s754/s939 system. DDR prices rise.

I suppose it's entirely likely that you see a combination of the above: prices fall (or at least stay more or less where they're at) until s754/s939 hit the EOL dates, then they start to go up.

Any thoughts? Insider info? Visions from the crystal ball?

Going forward with current trends, most DDR modules should stay roughly the same price. Smaller modules, 128s and 256s, are seeing a slight increase (at least I am here) with larger modules, 512s, 1GBs and 2GBs staying the same for PC3200.

As a capitalist market goes, some vendors and companies will charge more for DDR becase folks think that is should be more, due to DDR2's increased use.

phew, ok, i'll just wait for now. i remember a lot of uccc modules were super cheap back in march/april but prices seem to have rebounded a bit since then. perhaps they'll ebb again once the amd price cuts take effect.