View Single Post
Old 02-20-13, 10:13 AM   #23
Adak
Senior Member

 
Adak's Avatar 

Join Date: Jan 2006

 
Simple, straight forward handicapping.

This uses a simple ratio between competing teams, to handicap a race. It's ONLY based on folding points.

First, a background RACING average is determined for let's say, three teams, for a 1 day race. The race day has 8 update periods - just like the Chimp Challenge.
Code:
                         Team 1: Ants    Team 2: Bats   Team 3: Cats
=======================================================================
Racing Averages:               5M              10M          12M (per day)
 Handicap Ratio:             12/5            12/10           1  (most productive team has no handicap)
 
 Points updates:  (raw folding points)
                          1:   600,000      1,200,000     1,400,000 
			  2:   650,000      1,225,000     1,430,000
			  3:   712,000      1,330,000     1,510,000
			  4:   710,000      1,389,000     1,518,000
			  5:   740,000        960,000     1,901,000
			  6:   725,000        975,000     1,890,000
			  7:   688,000      1,212,000     1,720,000
			  8:   777,000      1,301,000     1,677,000
			     =======================================
			     5,602,000      9,592,000    13,046,000

Each point update is multiplied by the handicap, to avoid any "jumps" in the race points, at the end of a day.

(race folding points)       Team 1: Ants          Team 2: Bats               Team 3: Cats
==========================================================================================
 Points updates:  Raw points x handicap = race points
              1:  600k x 12/5 = 1,440,000  1.2M   x 12/10 = 1,440,000            1,400,000
              2:  650k x 12/5 = 1,560,000  1.225M x 12/10 = 1,470,000            1,430,000
              3:  712k x 12/5 = 1,708,800  1.33M  x 12/10 = 1,596,000            1,510,000
              4:  710k x 12/5 = 1,704,000  1.389M x 12/10 = 1,668,000            1,518,000
              5:  740k x 12/5 = 1,776,000    960k x 12/10 = 1,152,000            1,901,000
              6:  725k x 12/5 = 1,740,000    975k x 12/10 = 1,170,000            1,890,000
              7:  688k x 12/5 = 1,651,200  1.212M x 12/10 = 1,454,400            1,720,000
              8:  777k x 12/5 = 1,864,800  1.301M x 12/10 = 1,561,200            1,677,000		  

Day #1 Race Point Totals:
                       Team 1: 13,444,800          Team 2: 11,511,600    Team 3: 13,046,000
In this example, Team #1 Ants placed first, Team 3 Cats placed second, and Team 2 Bats placed third.

Which makes perfect sense because -

Team #1's raw points were well above their previous racing average.
Team #2 was below their average racing production, and
Team #3 was just barely above their average racing production.


There are two keys to good handicapping. First, the average used, must be *racing* production or times (whatever you're handicapping). It can't just be regular folding or the horse is just out running for a workout. Otherwise when the race starts, you'll get the shock of your life (as we saw two years ago), when the HWC and NCIX teams raced as one team!

This is the handicapping I'm proposing for the CC this year.

Last edited by Adak; 02-20-13 at 10:23 AM.
Adak is offline Author Profile Folding Profile   QUOTE Thanks
Thanks!
dfonda (02-20-13)