Will current dvd burners become obsolete in a year?

A little more than a year from now, the playstation 3 will come out, which will use 58 gig blu-ray discs.

How long do you think it will take for blu-ray burners to come out? How much will the media cost? I'm going to assume it wont cost so much more that the ps3 games will cost any more than current games, sony isn't that stupid.

So, will blank blu-ray media cost as much as dvd media today or will it cost alot more you think(much like a dvd costs about as much as the amount of cds for 4.7 gigs).

Just because the PS3 supports it doesn't mean it'll become a standard.

Consider other standards Sony has pushed (like Betamax and MD). Both are brilliant and "better" than their counterparts, and both are considered flops.

Not that I necessarily think it will. Just something to consider.

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As far as media price is concerned, it will drop as it becomes more popular, just like CD and DVD media. When Joe Everybody buys his DVD+Rs by the tens or hundreds like he does his CD-Rs, prices will hit the floor. Same for this new media.

How does it compare to Dual layer DVDs? I havent read much on it, but would be interested to see a comparison.

How does it compare to Dual layer DVDs? I havent read much on it, but would be interested to see a comparison.

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A dual layer BR-DVD holds 58GB. I read today via some link on /. that there's a rumored eight layered version that holds 200GB. We're talking massive storage, but this is a format that's designed to be an HD-DVD standard after all.

The answer to your question is no. Current DVD burners will not be obsolete next year. Any new format takes a couple of years to take over.

if at all... the main changes have been 8 track to cassette to CD, or beta to VHS to DVD... higher storage don 8x later DVD's probably are not going to make main stream as most lay people are still trying to figure out how Nero works with thier CD-R's

In maybe 3-4 Years CD's will become subpar and then DVD's will become standard.

The Blu-Ray HD-DVD and its competitor are just the next step for people. More of the essesne for people with quiet a bit of bucks to spend to get what they want. I'd expect these to be in a decent price range in about the same time CD's start going out of style and DVD's are main stream.

Gongo56 said:

most lay people are still trying to figure out how Nero works with thier CD-R's

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You got that right. I tried burning a CD-R for the first time in about 6 months and was totally lost.

Remember, this is a GEEK forum (meant in a good way). We represent maybe 1/2% of the market. The rest of the Joe Six-packs out there care only if number 1 -- it works, number 2 -- it doesn't cost much, and number 3 it takes no brains to use. By all of those measures we are decades away from having CDs and/or DVDs go obsolete.

Think about OEMs. Because generally what Dell and Gateway and the other big brand names do will dictate how well technology is adopted. The geek niche dont tend to set standards - we introduce them.

DVDs havent taken over from CDs, and DVDRWs have only become affordable (well, for me) in the past few months.

I think it will be a while before we are chucking DVDRWs in the bin.

I honestly hope it does get obsolete by next year & I just bought my DVD Burner a month ago. BL DVD Burners were available in Japan since 2002 I believe costing equal to $2300USD for one burner. If there is one thing that we should all want to move ahead in technology thats storage.

no kidding i think a year ago? dvd burners at 4x were like 500.. i just bought my DL DVD burner for 80 bucks...

and seriously, I doubt any lay person has the need to burn 9 gigs of stuff onto a DVD.. 9 gigs is usually half of their HDD

I'm happy with my single layer DVD burner. Maybe 2-3 years donw the road I'll get a high speed dual layer when the media is cheaper but its for sure not going to go out of style anytime soon.

you all guys are missing that there is another standard that is already or about to be aproved by the dvd forum: HD-DVD... which is basicaly a more compressed dvd, it can hold 23gb, the laser is compatible with current dvds (which br aint), cheaper to produce and no ghey copyright constraints like br...

as for current dvd obsolescence... if you have a non dual layer and non -/+rw drive you are go for obsolescence, if you have a non dual layer but have -/+r support you are somewhat okay, and if you have a newer dual layer and dual format -/r drive you have nothing to worry about for at least 4 years if either br or dvd-hd overtakes...

my.02

i got an 8X DVD+-RW no DL and i'm not worrying, hell DL are so expensive it's pointless to get the drive, wait till it drop and DL get better speed and grab the drive for like 50 bucks (BTW I got mine for 50 hehe). DVD is still the standard right now, look DL might come in by next year (earliest) since we haven't seen price drop on the media, if it's anything like DVDR wait for another 2 years before it drop and come in as maintream. BR, this might be the next 4 years, as of currently no DVD player will support this, or any burner that we have can do this, hell media is no where to be seen. so i'm guessing it'll take a while to settle in.

David said:

Think about OEMs. Because generally what Dell and Gateway and the other big brand names do will dictate how well technology is adopted. The geek niche dont tend to set standards - we introduce them.

DVDs havent taken over from CDs, and DVDRWs have only become affordable (well, for me) in the past few months.

I think it will be a while before we are chucking DVDRWs in the bin.

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and thats good for Sony since both dell and HP are supporting Blue Ray, with the support of PS3 as well, that may be the standard.

And don't forget SACD. SACD is a resolution less audio. See DVD-A ("A" stands for audio) is 24bits, but SACD uses a different technology and so its basically like having a crystal clear record! It looked like it would flop out but now all the players are universal, and so no one really cares and Sony still gets its sales, they hold about 1/3rd of the market.

As for MDs, I have to say that they suck, i got an MD player and while the technology is great, the software really sucked, and its a drag to compress WAV files cause the Sony reader couldn't play them and then the computer couldn't play the Sony files except through Sony's software. And then the thing broke from moisture, I live by the beach, but its not like I dunked it or anything.

But its always fun to see what Sony is cooking up. And every time something new is coming out they make their own version in hopes of creating a Microsoft monopoly that dominates. I admire their determination after 3 notable failures and aproaching a 4th.