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LTC profitability, mining return rates

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I.M.O.G.

Glorious Leader
Joined
Nov 12, 2002
Location
Rootstown, OH
I wanted to mention a couple of these posts as I think they are more relevant now with hindsight than they were when they were posted.

These were posted a month ago at the beginning of December, on the front end of the explosion of cryptocurrency awareness. It offers some pretty good reasoning in attempt to estimate future hashrate/difficulty increases, but at the same time grossly overestimates difficulty increases. There are two parts, the first more informative with explaining different estimates and means to get to the conclusions, and the second offering further perspective with a different approach:

First:
Second:
I think this is more relevant now than it was then, because we have the benefit of hindsight, and the amount of buzz has died down in comparison to what it was through the first half of December... And obtaining mining hardware has become more challenging in light of price and supply issues.

So my extrapolation from reading this, and with hindsight, in light of difficulty from the first week of December (1964) to the 4th week of January (3998)... Difficulty only doubled with LTC in over 1.5 months, in what could be the biggest boom in publicity/mainstream awareness we may see for the foreseeable future.

I don't like to make projections, because its a crap shoot really... But I'll go ahead here because most of you know better than to put too much stock in what I say. By the 2nd week of March (about 8 weeks), I'm saying LTC difficulty will be under 7500. That still puts profitability at about half what it is currently.

As a secondary prediction, I'm going to say LTC ASICs won't begin shipping until October or later this year.

Prediction 1: LTC difficulty <7500 by March 14th
Prediction 2: LTC ASICs after October 1st, 2014
 
I don't think that difficulty increase will remain constant. It is slowed by availability of new gpu's. I do think it will continue up, but not like it has. I thought it might dip, but price seems like it might start going up again.

Also, if price tanks or sharply goes up difficulty will follow. Although if price goes down difficulty will follow more slowly than it does for price going up.

All based on my feeling and thoughts. No evidence whatsoever...
 
Prediction 1: LTC difficulty <7500 by March 14th

I'm hoping I can start migrating from 270s to 290s by the time it hits that number.

No longer planning on buying the 280s. You can't ever find them in stock in Canada, and since I have more than a couple slots open yet I'd rather do two 270s than one 280 that may or may not arrive a month after ordering until I can really get things rolling.

The 290s on the other hand are often available. Insanely expensive, but at least you have a prayer of getting one in reasonable time.
 
I will go back to mining for virtually nothing soon at 300kh/s, but for now the temperature in the conference room I'm working in part time has risen to above 80F it seems. I was eyeballing the windows that are oainted shut earlier today, to see if i could let some winter air in. 17 4770k's mining since Thursday, brought 4 more online today bringing it to 21 (out of network ports and power cables). Worth about 90kh/s each on poolers cpu miner. The OEM discrete GPU can mine at the same time, but is only worth about 10kh/s with the CPU at full tilt.

Pulling about 2.3MH/s average, along with my 300kh/s contributed from home.

Compensation negotiations didn't go well, so I'm working for pennies which is better than not working. However they also said the nature of the work they needed done didnt warrant a higher wage and I've been fixing their bogus Active Directory design and implementing group policy and training their admins on it.

So basically, I'm being paid in peanuts, performing work typically compensated at 65K+/year, and doing it happily while I mine 12 bucks a day in magic internet money. :facepalm: Really they work with my school schedule, and let me do what I want, so I can't complain. :)
 
I will go back to mining for virtually nothing soon at 300kh/s, but for now the temperature in the conference room I'm working in part time has risen to above 80F it seems. I was eyeballing the windows that are oainted shut earlier today, to see if i could let some winter air in. 17 4770k's mining since Thursday, brought 4 more online today bringing it to 21 (out of network ports and power cables). Worth about 90kh/s each on poolers cpu miner. The OEM discrete GPU can mine at the same time, but is only worth about 10kh/s with the CPU at full tilt.

Pulling about 2.3MH/s average, along with my 300kh/s contributed from home.

Compensation negotiations didn't go well, so I'm working for pennies which is better than not working. However they also said the nature of the work they needed done didnt warrant a higher wage and I've been fixing their bogus Active Directory design and implementing group policy and training their admins on it.

So basically, I'm being paid in peanuts, performing work typically compensated at 65K+/year, and doing it happily while I mine 12 bucks a day in magic internet money. :facepalm: Really they work with my school schedule, and let me do what I want, so I can't complain. :)

Don't feel bad :)
I've only just got 360 Kh now.

We'll make it :cheers:
 
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