- Joined
- Nov 12, 2002
- Location
- Rootstown, OH
I wanted to mention a couple of these posts as I think they are more relevant now with hindsight than they were when they were posted.
These were posted a month ago at the beginning of December, on the front end of the explosion of cryptocurrency awareness. It offers some pretty good reasoning in attempt to estimate future hashrate/difficulty increases, but at the same time grossly overestimates difficulty increases. There are two parts, the first more informative with explaining different estimates and means to get to the conclusions, and the second offering further perspective with a different approach:
First:
Second:
I think this is more relevant now than it was then, because we have the benefit of hindsight, and the amount of buzz has died down in comparison to what it was through the first half of December... And obtaining mining hardware has become more challenging in light of price and supply issues.
So my extrapolation from reading this, and with hindsight, in light of difficulty from the first week of December (1964) to the 4th week of January (3998)... Difficulty only doubled with LTC in over 1.5 months, in what could be the biggest boom in publicity/mainstream awareness we may see for the foreseeable future.
I don't like to make projections, because its a crap shoot really... But I'll go ahead here because most of you know better than to put too much stock in what I say. By the 2nd week of March (about 8 weeks), I'm saying LTC difficulty will be under 7500. That still puts profitability at about half what it is currently.
As a secondary prediction, I'm going to say LTC ASICs won't begin shipping until October or later this year.
Prediction 1: LTC difficulty <7500 by March 14th
Prediction 2: LTC ASICs after October 1st, 2014
These were posted a month ago at the beginning of December, on the front end of the explosion of cryptocurrency awareness. It offers some pretty good reasoning in attempt to estimate future hashrate/difficulty increases, but at the same time grossly overestimates difficulty increases. There are two parts, the first more informative with explaining different estimates and means to get to the conclusions, and the second offering further perspective with a different approach:
First:
Second:
I think this is more relevant now than it was then, because we have the benefit of hindsight, and the amount of buzz has died down in comparison to what it was through the first half of December... And obtaining mining hardware has become more challenging in light of price and supply issues.
So my extrapolation from reading this, and with hindsight, in light of difficulty from the first week of December (1964) to the 4th week of January (3998)... Difficulty only doubled with LTC in over 1.5 months, in what could be the biggest boom in publicity/mainstream awareness we may see for the foreseeable future.
I don't like to make projections, because its a crap shoot really... But I'll go ahead here because most of you know better than to put too much stock in what I say. By the 2nd week of March (about 8 weeks), I'm saying LTC difficulty will be under 7500. That still puts profitability at about half what it is currently.
As a secondary prediction, I'm going to say LTC ASICs won't begin shipping until October or later this year.
Prediction 1: LTC difficulty <7500 by March 14th
Prediction 2: LTC ASICs after October 1st, 2014