- Joined
- Nov 12, 2002
- Location
- Rootstown, OH
Analysis: Mt Gox uncertainty & Where to put miners & shipped scrypt ASICs
Many of you are on automated pools and don't concern yourself with where to put your miners, however I figured it'd be worth sharing some of my current thoughts anyway. Also, Mt Gox is a good topic to be aware of right now as it could be seen as the next most likely drastic change in the markets.
I've recently done some mining tests involving, LTC, Doge, and PTS. My experience with Doge mining was very positive (profitable) due to timing (low difficulty and exceptionally good exchange rates) - I discussed it here. My experience with PTS mining was alright due to timing (slightly more profitable than LTC as it was struggling, a good amount less profitable than Doge because it was surging) - I discussed it here.
So currently, LTC mining is in position to become much more competitive due to a decent exchange rate and decreasing difficulty, while Doge is looking like it might become less dominant due to a decrease in exchange rate and slightly higher difficulty (both LTC and Doge look like they are could get into alignment around $20/daily with 2.2MH/s hashrate - this assumes no large market movement boom/crash, which is a BIG if)... The two coming together in the middle should be expected regardless though as the gap was large and it should naturally even out.
Meanwhile however, PTS exchange rate is hanging out around .0137 PTS/BTC, and it remains relatively stable - which makes the picture for PTS brighter than it was on the 24th when I did my last test (the exchange rate had dipped at the time), and it could likely be the best place to put my 2MH/s of CPU miners at ypool, as my estimates put income at around $25/daily (about $1.25/4770K).
That concludes my recent analysis of where to put miners to maximize returns.
Gox... Hm. It continues to detach further from other BTC markets. It's current spread is $160, and I've seen it as high as $190 personally - I'm not sure where the spread has peaked. Another problem with Gox is volume - no one can get USD out, and people are giving up en masse. So the only way to get USD out of Gox is to pay the $160+ spread to buy into BTC and send the BTC somewhere that USD withdraws are possible. Due to these things, many people think Gox will fail because in this situation no one wants to have USD on Gox or put USD into Gox. If Gox fails, it will hurt people there hugely, but worse yet will be the mass media news as many mainstream places still view Gox as a market leader despite what we in the trenches know - Gox and its inflated prices are irrelevant, and getting more so everyday. But the bad news in the media is likely to have big impact on the markets regardless.
I'm not in Fiat now, holdings are 40/60 BTC/LTC. But I feel like I should go Fiat, in light of the Gox uncertainty and the threat it poses - but there's just no way to know when things will hit a critical point, and unless the market does crash, being in Fiat doesn't look good. If BTC goes, LTC tends to follow so holding either is likely to play out about the same... Not sure what to do, but I'm hoping I make the right decisions at the right time. If not, plan B is to just hold, and after things pass over I should come out even... Ideally though I hope to be in Fiat at the right time, the crash comes, and I buy back in on a ton of cheap coin.
So finally, no commentary here, but Dualminer (70KH/s, 2.5W, $99) and DigInForce (300KH/s, 8W, $1300) have shipped scrypt ASICs. I don't have any more information than that, but they have shipped product - I don't believe they are ready to ship in mass quantity, but reports are that working miners are actually in the wild but haven't been reviewed/confirmed yet. DigInForce doesn't look any good on paper as its just too expensive, however Dualminer could look alright on paper - Get 1000 of them, and you could do 70,000KH/s for $100,000 at only 2.5KW. This wouldn't be unreasonable for a small time institutional/business miner.
Many of you are on automated pools and don't concern yourself with where to put your miners, however I figured it'd be worth sharing some of my current thoughts anyway. Also, Mt Gox is a good topic to be aware of right now as it could be seen as the next most likely drastic change in the markets.
I've recently done some mining tests involving, LTC, Doge, and PTS. My experience with Doge mining was very positive (profitable) due to timing (low difficulty and exceptionally good exchange rates) - I discussed it here. My experience with PTS mining was alright due to timing (slightly more profitable than LTC as it was struggling, a good amount less profitable than Doge because it was surging) - I discussed it here.
So currently, LTC mining is in position to become much more competitive due to a decent exchange rate and decreasing difficulty, while Doge is looking like it might become less dominant due to a decrease in exchange rate and slightly higher difficulty (both LTC and Doge look like they are could get into alignment around $20/daily with 2.2MH/s hashrate - this assumes no large market movement boom/crash, which is a BIG if)... The two coming together in the middle should be expected regardless though as the gap was large and it should naturally even out.
Meanwhile however, PTS exchange rate is hanging out around .0137 PTS/BTC, and it remains relatively stable - which makes the picture for PTS brighter than it was on the 24th when I did my last test (the exchange rate had dipped at the time), and it could likely be the best place to put my 2MH/s of CPU miners at ypool, as my estimates put income at around $25/daily (about $1.25/4770K).
That concludes my recent analysis of where to put miners to maximize returns.
Gox... Hm. It continues to detach further from other BTC markets. It's current spread is $160, and I've seen it as high as $190 personally - I'm not sure where the spread has peaked. Another problem with Gox is volume - no one can get USD out, and people are giving up en masse. So the only way to get USD out of Gox is to pay the $160+ spread to buy into BTC and send the BTC somewhere that USD withdraws are possible. Due to these things, many people think Gox will fail because in this situation no one wants to have USD on Gox or put USD into Gox. If Gox fails, it will hurt people there hugely, but worse yet will be the mass media news as many mainstream places still view Gox as a market leader despite what we in the trenches know - Gox and its inflated prices are irrelevant, and getting more so everyday. But the bad news in the media is likely to have big impact on the markets regardless.
I'm not in Fiat now, holdings are 40/60 BTC/LTC. But I feel like I should go Fiat, in light of the Gox uncertainty and the threat it poses - but there's just no way to know when things will hit a critical point, and unless the market does crash, being in Fiat doesn't look good. If BTC goes, LTC tends to follow so holding either is likely to play out about the same... Not sure what to do, but I'm hoping I make the right decisions at the right time. If not, plan B is to just hold, and after things pass over I should come out even... Ideally though I hope to be in Fiat at the right time, the crash comes, and I buy back in on a ton of cheap coin.
So finally, no commentary here, but Dualminer (70KH/s, 2.5W, $99) and DigInForce (300KH/s, 8W, $1300) have shipped scrypt ASICs. I don't have any more information than that, but they have shipped product - I don't believe they are ready to ship in mass quantity, but reports are that working miners are actually in the wild but haven't been reviewed/confirmed yet. DigInForce doesn't look any good on paper as its just too expensive, however Dualminer could look alright on paper - Get 1000 of them, and you could do 70,000KH/s for $100,000 at only 2.5KW. This wouldn't be unreasonable for a small time institutional/business miner.
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