heres what i guess could happen..
windows longhorn WOULD have been the fall of M$, especially with its high standards. people dont want to learn a new environment every new OS upgrade, they want it similar, but slowly change. Itd be like going from windows 3.1 to XP right away, youd be all "Wtf mate", or likle going from os7 to osx.4..its sorta the same, but everythings moved around
Windows vista just bought them some time. your average idiot wont see its the =98SE, and will run out and buy it.
Mac will do 1 of 2 things:
1. Theyll come through with making x86 macs to dual boot. Best way to get rid of an enemy is make him a friend (M$)...then squash him! Itd let people slowlly ween off of xp onto os x. I bet theyll have options to dual boot before you even buy it. But as i said before, on osx you can run any linux program. CXOffice, WINE, Cedega, all can run (yes i know its BSD, but ive seen people run wine on it, play enemy territory and doom 3 on BSD, etc). Ok, so now you have a base to run M$ on osx. I wouldnt put it past jobs to help develop a windows compatability kit...you get a company with a lot of $$ to put into a aproject like wine, youll see some results....lets not forget, you get all linux programs. Thats 3 OSes in one....plus running all PPC apps.
That IMO, would slowly kill M$. Wouldnt make os x dominant like windows is now, but itd take atleast a decade for a real notice...and personally, alot of people are/were going to switch before jobs started screwing around with his x86 deal. Now no one wants to buy a PPC mac for fear of it being obsolete really quick
2. Steve realizes his software will just be hacked. Plain and simple. No matter what he does to protect it, it will be defeated. Im guessing hed release the first wave of x86 macs before he figures that out. Then im sure he'd probably offer a recall/exchange program. No harm has been done yet. Companies like maxon, discreet, adobe...so what, they checked the "Intel" box on Xcode for compiling and wasted a few hours building a program that could be discarded, because the PPC version already works.
So, in short, there itll be a huge hit, or itll just get trampled..i t hink itll just get trampled.
THEN, i say linux will have its time. M$ cant rule forever, in the words of james headfield, "the higher you are, the farther you fall"...Steve isnt as greedy as bill gates, but he'll do his stupid share im sure. Overcharge (more than now)...im guessing steve could defeat M$, then F things up big time for himself, and before M$ can come back, people turn to linux (cause theyd have a taste of it on OS X)..well oone can hope
Thats just my .02. id like to see someone new on everyones desktop other than bill gates. But i know businesses are holding on to windows for a LONG tiime.
Then again, that could change. Federal Reserve Bank of cleveland is getting REALLY fed up with dell and windows 2k/xp. My mother flew out to kansas for a meeting, which totally was a waste of time. Everyone could log in, but she couldnt. She'd get in, someone else would get punted. Then XP turned off the network adaptor...
then i guess their new software wont run, after it just did 2 days ago..
in short, theyre really regretting their contract with dell. I think if you had one or 2 major businesses switch over (with the help of some windows emulators) youd have a good match against microsoft.