Bitcoin exchange rate discussion

ivanlabrie · Aug 29, 2014

This is a prediction based on my analysis of the past 16 days of data.

BTC will go to 527 or maybe 555usd before eventually dropping again to 400+-25usd in the coming days. This process would take at least 10 to 20 days.

After that we will see a huge price increase, since instutional money will jump in on the long side then.

torin3 · Sep 19, 2014

Running under $400 right now.

EarthDog · Sep 19, 2014

ivanlabrie said:
This is a prediction based on my analysis of the past 16 days of data.

BTC will go to 527 or maybe 555usd before eventually dropping again to 400+-25usd in the coming days. This process would take at least 10 to 20 days.

After that we will see a huge price increase, since instutional money will jump in on the long side then.

That turned out to be optimistic... it never saw $500 and is still on its way down... Here is to hoping your last part is right though!

Silver_Pharaoh · Sep 19, 2014

Maaaan just when I get back into mining

Sorry guys, I must have caused the price drop :chair:

ivanlabrie · Sep 26, 2014

EarthDog said:
That turned out to be optimistic... it never saw $500 and is still on its way down... Here is to hoping your last part is right though!

I adjusted my predictions on the run, this is my latest chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/D22vbWQP/
Updates in the comments.

It'll keep going down, sell and buy back at 330. When you see a huge amount of volume, being red or green bars, doesn't matter...yet prices start moving up, then that was buy volume.
Normally changes in direction are caused by big instutional players (banks, wall street guys, paypal, chinese mobsters, whatever).
They buy at the bottom, when people panic, then push prices back up and start selling when people get excited (remember the 1k bubble?).

Great time to buy if you're patient and wait for the bottom at 330.

EDIT: I got deep into trading and analysis

, here's my twitter and my trading group's (I post predictions and forecasts for trading opportunities):

https://twitter.com/ivan_labrie (yeah that's me and my jet...handsome guy eh? xD)
https://twitter.com/CT__Brotherhood

xsuperbgx · Sep 26, 2014

Thanks Ivan.

Though I am not currently buying or selling, I appreciate your thoughts.

ivanlabrie · Sep 26, 2014

Np, just trying to help my buddies out...I'd hate to see any of you losing money.

torin3 · Oct 5, 2014

Under $300 now.

moz_21 · Oct 5, 2014

Wow, it was ~$360 this morning.

ivanlabrie · Oct 5, 2014

moz_21 said:
Wow, it was ~$360 this morning.

You saw my charts? Spot on...

We might see some more downwards pressure, stay in cash people.
(We MIGHT see a relief rally to 400+-30usd, but then it'll head back down before the ultimate reversal, if it double bottoms at 276 again.

Target would be at least 1600 in the short term.

Silver_Pharaoh · Oct 5, 2014

ssjwizard · Oct 6, 2014

This is a bit frustrating. I was considering cashing out when we hit $500, but held a fair amount of coin back. It started looking like a small rally was coming last week so I kept holding, and now were are $300... Such a bummer deal right now. Fortunately I dont need the cash right now, but I am really starting to get concerned about this drop if it doesn't bottom out soon.

gsrcrxsi · Oct 6, 2014

glad i sold everything i had left way back when it was still in the ~600 range.

klear · Oct 6, 2014

gsrcrxsi said:
glad i sold everything i had left way back when it was still in the ~600 range.

you aren't going to buy back in?

Silver_Pharaoh · Oct 6, 2014

Crap. Forgot to save some $$ at Cavirtex so I could buy in. :bang head

ivanlabrie · Oct 7, 2014

ssjwizard said:
This is a bit frustrating. I was considering cashing out when we hit $500, but held a fair amount of coin back. It started looking like a small rally was coming last week so I kept holding, and now were are $300... Such a bummer deal right now. Fortunately I dont need the cash right now, but I am really starting to get concerned about this drop if it doesn't bottom out soon.

If you are getting emotional, means you have to do the opposite. If you do that, you'll be 75% correct.
Trading is not simple, if you can't stomach it, it's better to convert for usd as you go and hold usd.

I posted charts up there, but seems like no one saw them. Meh...

Silver_Pharaoh said:
Crap. Forgot to save some $$ at Cavirtex so I could buy in.

Wait for the double bottom.
It'll painfully and slowly go to 400-440 now, then back down swiftly to 266-286.
After that happens and everyone and their mother panics and sells, it'll start going up fast to hit higher highs than the 1200 ATH.

Janus67 · Oct 7, 2014

Hope you're right Ivan

gsrcrxsi · Oct 7, 2014

I'm highly skeptical of another $1000+ bubble. My inclination is that it'll settle around 250ish and stay for a while with a very very slow increase. like years to get back to a steady 1000+, if ever.

the price is too reliant on emotion, skepticism, and tons of other factors that can be manipulated like media coverage, business adoption, legislation, etc. a huge business or businesses could have widespread adoption, which would be good for price, or legislators could come down hard on BTC and either ban or heavily tax BTC (more than they already are), which would be bad for price.

take any predictions with the same grain of salt as a fortune teller or spiritual medium.

ivanlabrie · Oct 7, 2014

gsrcrxsi said:
I'm highly skeptical of another $1000+ bubble. My inclination is that it'll settle around 250ish and stay for a while with a very very slow increase. like years to get back to a steady 1000+, if ever.

the price is too reliant on emotion, skepticism, and tons of other factors that can be manipulated like media coverage, business adoption, legislation, etc. a huge business or businesses could have widespread adoption, which would be good for price, or legislators could come down hard on BTC and either ban or heavily tax BTC (more than they already are), which would be bad for price.

take any predictions with the same grain of salt as a fortune teller or spiritual medium.

Mine come from my trading experience...What moves the price, is the manipulators. Same as any other market, what you say, is what the public can see, very different from what's going behind the scenes.

News are only there to deceit, and the only thing emotional buyers/sellers do is lose money, but not move the market.

Oklahoma Wolf · Oct 7, 2014

ivanlabrie said:
Wait for the double bottom.
It'll painfully and slowly go to 400-440 now, then back down swiftly to 266-286.
After that happens and everyone and their mother panics and sells, it'll start going up fast to hit higher highs than the 1200 ATH.

Wish I could afford to buy in right now. As is, I'm broke so I'll just have to sit and watch while hopefully the price of XMR goes up too. Then maybe I can do some trading from there.

I did sell before the BTC price bottomed out, so I could have made money if it weren't for all those "bill" things.

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