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Bitcoin exchange rate discussion

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A proprietary, self made currency with no intrinsic value what so ever.... pretty shocked it's still above 400 honestly. No commodity value, no physical use... its quite shocking really.

It's already exceeded expectations. The problem now is the profit margin on this is growing smaller by the minute. If I had to make a guess, it's gonna go down as people get scared. After people stop mining it, the price should rise again.

Purely speculation of course. Referencing gold as a basis for this, but its kinda two different animals.
 
I can never tell if those types of posts are real, or if someone is just messing with us.

I read the speculation forums over at bitcointalk and there are always new threads about how Bitcoin is going to zero. It's the same thing. Are those people just really ignorant about Bitcoin and other cryptos, or are they just trying to yank our chain? :screwy:
 
ChanceCoats123 said:
I can never tell if those types of posts are real, or if someone is just messing with us.

I read the speculation forums over at bitcointalk and there are always new threads about how Bitcoin is going to zero. It's the same thing. Are those people just really ignorant about Bitcoin and other cryptos, or are they just trying to yank our chain? :screwy:
Click to expand...

Far from ignorant my friend.

Look at it like this, the difficulty rate is going up exponentially, however the performance of your machines are going to remain pretty static or improve in a linear fashion. So from there, lets look at some things for the average consumer.


A 500$ antminer @ 483 (lets round up to 500 for ease), puts you at roughly making .38 bit coins a month. Which nets to a whopping 170$. So, skipping electrical bills, we're at a rock solid 3 months to get an ROI. Thats keeping the difficulty static, which its not.

Now, those run at lets say .4kw, for 24 hours for 30 days -> 288kwh which is 35$ a month. That brings your net profit down to 135$. Which extends your ROI an extra month.


Projected next difficulty will be 18% higher than now... Which should be this week. So readjusting->


.31 bit coins a month -> at market value -> 137 - 35$ electrical bill -> 102$ a month, which becomes a 5 month ROI.

Now, bit coins will grow exponentially, which means yes... even further out for ROI.

There is no free lunch. Bit coins were viable for a span of 6 months. Now its going to be EXTREMELY difficult for people to make "good money" off this.

This wont stop the "Greed" of the world, free money is indeed appealing as hell. I read an article a few months ago where people spent like 17 MILLION$ to make 4.4 million in bit coin!

Clearly to those with the rigs, and keeping profit margins high, power to you, but speaking to the average home user, this is incredibly silly. And once the "Glamour" is gone, bitcoin will drop like a rock.


edit: I got crapped on in 2012 when I told people to stop buying gold. "ITS GONNA GO OVER 2000 BOB!", no. Greed always overextends the market. There will be a snap back, and then some stabilization period, but we wont see 1000$ a coin ever again in my opinion (at least until inflation marginalizes it). edit 3: I NEVER said "bitcoin is going to zero". Thats dumb, people have actual money invested into this, and most wont let it go without some profit. as more and more vendors accept bitcoins, the price will stabilize somewhere. Straight up mining a bitcoin will not be profitable in the future without ridiculous rigs, and even then may not get you a ROI until some huge amount of time later.

edit 2: with sanctions on russia's gold exports, I know where I'd rather put my money...
 
Last edited:
EarthDog said:
Lol, sounds like me late last year...
Click to expand...


Please, correct me then. Tell me where my logic is flawed, and I will have a good look at this.


Going from 60-1000$ in span of weeks is absurd, and prices dropping from 1000 to 400$ in the span of a couple months isn't giving investors the best of the "warm fuzzies". Its been on a consistent decline in value for 8 months straight. PLEASE correct me?


edit: the only true value of this currency is its anonymity and tax evasion. Add in taxes to those equations, and your ROI is put out considerably.
 
Its just what I sounded like late last year... haters gonna hate in other words. :p

I did this for a while on GPUs this year and the profit margins were decent. I was making around $10-$12 /day after electric costs. Now, that value is cut in half last I checked so I quit. I wasn't in it to hold like a lot of these guys are. I had the hardware, knocked out some profit in a few of months (~$1K) and bailed. Now days, ROI does take longer due to increased difficulty, however at this moment, ASIC's are where its at as well as alt coins/algos to keep profits up. It does take time to recoup though... no doubt.

A word of caution knowing you and knowing this section... While the thread title is appropriate for some of this discussion, you have entered into the details which have been hashed out time and time again in other threads. Perhaps I am wrong, but this thread (to me) is about why its going up and down and not about the ROI and potentially little profit margins which is what you are getting heavily into. I wouldn't go down that rabbit hole in this thread. :)
 
Last edited:
i don't mine bitcoins anymore as i don't pay the electrical bills, so my dad was complaining how it raised the bill
but bitcoins/litcoins paid for my car in full (used of course) and i still have a few left (also paid for all my video cards in the house which are about 5 and other stuff)
even if bitcoins hit rock bottom im still happy with what i made out with
 
bob4933 said:
Far from ignorant my friend.

Look at it like this, the difficulty rate is going up exponentially, however the performance of your machines are going to remain pretty static or improve in a linear fashion. So from there, lets look at some things for the average consumer.


A 500$ antminer @ 483 (lets round up to 500 for ease), puts you at roughly making .38 bit coins a month. Which nets to a whopping 170$. So, skipping electrical bills, we're at a rock solid 3 months to get an ROI. Thats keeping the difficulty static, which its not.

Now, those run at lets say .4kw, for 24 hours for 30 days -> 288kwh which is 35$ a month. That brings your net profit down to 135$. Which extends your ROI an extra month.


Projected next difficulty will be 18% higher than now... Which should be this week. So readjusting->


.31 bit coins a month -> at market value -> 137 - 35$ electrical bill -> 102$ a month, which becomes a 5 month ROI.

Now, bit coins will grow exponentially, which means yes... even further out for ROI.

There is no free lunch. Bit coins were viable for a span of 6 months. Now its going to be EXTREMELY difficult for people to make "good money" off this.

This wont stop the "Greed" of the world, free money is indeed appealing as hell. I read an article a few months ago where people spent like 17 MILLION$ to make 4.4 million in bit coin!

Clearly to those with the rigs, and keeping profit margins high, power to you, but speaking to the average home user, this is incredibly silly. And once the "Glamour" is gone, bitcoin will drop like a rock.


edit: I got crapped on in 2012 when I told people to stop buying gold. "ITS GONNA GO OVER 2000 BOB!", no. Greed always overextends the market. There will be a snap back, and then some stabilization period, but we wont see 1000$ a coin ever again in my opinion (at least until inflation marginalizes it). edit 3: I NEVER said "bitcoin is going to zero". Thats dumb, people have actual money invested into this, and most wont let it go without some profit. as more and more vendors accept bitcoins, the price will stabilize somewhere. Straight up mining a bitcoin will not be profitable in the future without ridiculous rigs, and even then may not get you a ROI until some huge amount of time later.

edit 2: with sanctions on russia's gold exports, I know where I'd rather put my money...
Click to expand...

I never meant to offend, and my comment about the users saying "bitcoin will go to $0" clearly wasn't about you ( I even mentioned where I was talking about).

That said, your calculations are all based upon a consistent market, which we've all seen to be almost never true.

Let me tell you an anecdote about my stupid younger self:

I used to have 1.2mhash/sec worth of mining power. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that's not a lot. But I had 5 graphics cards chugging away. I was making good money. The cards paid for themselves and then some. At 1 BTC per day, I was happy with my $15 per day. Anyway, once I got the point (a few months later) where I was only mining .5 per day, I thought to myself "This isn't worth it anymore. This is just too much work to leave my computer on all day and get a half Bitcoin per day which I can exchange for goods, services and even cash." So I stopped mining and sold most of my hardware.

Let's fast forward to today. Even with decreasing prices, I was making at least $200 per day. There is no amount of math that you can show me about ROI and any other market data which would stop me from regretting that I stopped.

I completely agree with you that mining is less than ideal right now. But you better believe that mining was viable for MUCH longer than "6 months." I would know because I did it myself for much longer, and I even stopped early.

It will also continue to be viable. The miners are getting more and more efficient, and they are getting paid handsomely right now.

It's also naive to say we'll never see $1000 again when that's already been said (albeit on different scales), for every all time high, ever.

People used to say "we're never going to see $40 again." And then it was "We'll never see $266 again." Then "We'll never see $500 again." I just think it's naive to say that those numbers can't, or won't happen again, especially since there is such compelling evidence to the contrary.

Anyway, I see you've got the math for ROI and mining down, but your comments about "Anonymity and tax evasion" reveal much more to me. Do some extra reading if you're really interested in Bitcoin and various crypto's. There are many more uses than anonymity, and the US government taxes crypto transactions, so I don't know what you mean with the tax evasion comment.
 
EarthDog said:
A word of caution knowing you and knowing this section... While the thread title is appropriate for some of this discussion, you have entered into the details which have been hashed out time and time again in other threads. Perhaps I am wrong, but this thread (to me) is about why its going up and down and not about the ROI and potentially little profit margins which is what you are getting heavily into. I wouldn't go down that rabbit hole in this thread. :)
Click to expand...

As the OP, I did indeed intend for discussion of why the price is going up or down at the moment, not whether or not it is worth mining.
 
Silver_Pharaoh said:
@bob4933
Bitcoin will not die anytime soon.
Don't mine it if you think it's worthless. Simple :)
We will mine it if we want to
Click to expand...

You guys are REALLY putting words into my mouth. Please dont. And I never criticized those that are doing mining.

1) I NEVER said it "Wasnt viable". I clearly point out there IS A profit margin. That can be larger with more equipment.

2) I've been dealing with gold and commodities trades since you were in grade school. I am not speaking of this as a "garbage tool". I am speaking as its a VOLATILE industry. Nothing more, nothing less. If you said to me this time last year, "bitcoins will hit 1000$", I'd hae laughed at you, but sure enough... Had I known.... haha Its extremely volatile and is 100% based on CONSUMER DEMAND and not some value. ->

which leads to point 3

3) china started buying a LOT which lead demand to SKYROCKET. Artifical inflation. Same as gold did in 2010-2012. Gold jumped from 400 to almost 1800 in a matter of months because of china. Because of this volatility, you can almost directly attribute price inflation to china's purchases. Now, with sanctions in china, its really unreasonable to believe that any american company (heavily invested in the DOLLAR) will extend out to some cyber currency that has no intrinsic value. Now because of this, theres no accurate predictions that can be made beyond buying patterns of china. And since those are WAY DOWN, it makes sense to think that the price of it will be way down and will stay there until someone makes a huge buy.


@ Chance

Sorry, I thought you were referencing myself as ignorant. No offense taken.

My points were based entirely to make a prediction that bitcoins will continue to drop in price. As this happens, you can expect the chinese banks to start purchases again, which will net some raise in price again. Don't expect 1000$ again imo. That may be naive, but with market flooding, and the deluge of cyber currencies that followed suit at that time, its unreasonable to expect that kind of gains (outside of inflation of course).

The time for bitcoin is nigh and dear. Kind of a '**** or get off the pot' moment. This time next year, there will be zero profitability for even asic miners. Unless some new technology comes out that is... which is feasible!
 
ivanlabrie said:
I'm profiting alright, not much from mining but from margin trading like it was any other currency or commodity. :)
Click to expand...

This really is where the money is right now.

I bailed on mining a month or two ago because I had made investments in the machine and my ROI was approaching over 1.7 years (far too long for my tastes, and that was based on a static market). But I'm still keeping up on BTC so as to see where this all goes. I can't imagine the market tanking anytime soon, but I also don't see it approaching 1k/BTC again. I honestly think the market will just kind of flatten out for a bit. Just a gut feeling. :)
 
Here's a nice trading strategy for you guys, to help maintain or increase dollar worth of your bitcoins (and also your bitcoin count!):

Use this site for charts: http://www.tradingview.com/

Create a new btcusd chart (www.bitfinex.com)

Add the following indicators to your chart:

CCI (5)
sma (10) - properties: change color to green
ema (30) - properties: change color to red
sma (200) - properties: change color to dark blue
awesome oscillator (defaults)

You can use this in any timeframe (1D is better for longer trending moves but takes ages). Trends like this only happen 30% of the time btw, so this will keep you out of harm and increase either your btc or your dollar count as you go.

-Look for the green moving average to move up and closer to the red one to buy, or for it to be moving down and closer to it to sell. A good filter for trades is the Awesome oscillator and the dark blue ma (200).
You can figure out the general trend direction with them. If price is over the ma (200) it is more likely to go up and if it's below it's more likely to go down.
It acts like a same pole magnet, vs price most of the time. When price gets close to it, it'll make it rebound most of the time, unless you are seeing a REALLY strong move that can push through.

As for the Awesome oscillator, it'll be either red or green, and the histogram lines will be either positive or negative (has a 0 line).
To get into a buy trade, wait for it to turn green and start moving upwards, and to get into a sell wait for it to turn red and start trending downwards.

Once you see the green ma move towards the red ma, figure out the trend direction. Then look at CCI to find a good entry (you want to have usd deposited at bitstamp or bitfinex or use a margin trading account to trade long and short if you're more experienced).

Buys: If CCI is below -100, set a buy stop order slightly over that day's high price.

Sells: If CCI is over 100, set a sell stop order slightly below that day's low price.

Ride the trend till you see fit, wait for the Awesome oscillator to change color and start trending the opposite way to exit the trade (make sure there is generous distance from the 200 ma).

Example: https://www.tradingview.com/x/hAd8A8U9/
 
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