Captain Slug said:
Enough with the paranoia. Aside from pestering Taiwan and some of it's other neighbours occasionally it doesn't have any larger aim except to give the vast majority of it's citizens decent paying jobs instead of having them toil in subsistence agriculture. Pretty much the same situation we were in during the second half of the 1800s.
I think a certain measure of paranoia is justified, during the 1800s the United
States was determined to expand economically at all costs, there was a great deal of government sanctioned industrial espionage going on in Europe at the time, and the goal was not simply a benevolent desire to raise the quality of life of US citizens. While I don't believe for one moment that they are spoiling to invade the west, I think it is is naive to credit China with anything less than ruthless economic expansionism. If the goal was raising the quality of life, then why is their economic miracle killing and maiming hundreds of thousands of workers?
Captain Slug said:
Not entirely likely since they're advancing further than their political and ecological system can keep up AND they don't have the natural resources (both raw materials and agriculture) required to keep up their current pace. They're GOING to hit a ceiling or a dangerous recession if the Chinese government doesn't try to control things more wisely.
China also has some serious problems with local government corruption.
I agree, and I think the ceiling is inextricably linked to the very basis of China's wealth. AFAIK The bulk of their economy is based upon the export of cheap mass manufactured goods sold at vast markup. However there are real limits on the market for such products, and particularly if too much outsourcing of jobs leads to an economic downturn in the west. Another issue is rising fuel costs, presumably it is going to become increasingly less cost effective to ship goods over vast distances as the fuel overheads rise.
Captain Slug said:
Sorry, but I can't see what possible benefit retaining manufacturing jobs would have. All of your clothing, electronics, appliances, light bulbs (the list goes on and on) would cost twice as much as they do now.
As I see it there are two benefits, the first is that it keeps employment up.
There are always those who will never be useful for any employment other than unskilled or semi skilled labour and many of those jobs are being outsourced. Higher employment means more people paying tax, and fewer dependant upon any welfare system there is.
Retaining manufacturing capacity is also strategically important. While war is unlikely, we don't know what our future relationship with China will hold. Russia is currently holding a number of more natural gas dependant European countries to ransom as it is their main or only supplier.
I
agree that economic interdepandance is a positive thing, but to be so
totally dependant upon a single potentially hostile nation's manufacturing capability is a dangerous mistake.