Die, PIII, Die!!! – Time for PIV

(Someone ought to slap me for that title. 🙂 )

Intel is supposed to have an announcement “of great significance” within the next couple weeks.

Both the Register and the ex-Register agree that this probably means the end of the PIII. We agree, and think the PIV will take over Intel’s higher-end very shortly.

The Register thinks we’re going to see Tualatin Celerons real soon now, and there we emphatically disagree, for a very simple reason.

Due to equipment supplier problems, Intel is going to be severely constrained in making .13 micron chips for at least the next few months. That now appears to be the reason for the then inexplicable decision to bring .13 micron technology to the PIII first rather than to a PIV.

Until Intel gets sufficient .13 micron manufacturing capability, it would make sense for them to use what they’ve got for low-volume, relatively high-priced areas like mobile and server chips.

What would make absolutely no sense would be to use that scarce capability to make their cheapest chips. If they’re doing that, then the Blue Men aren’t marketing Intel, they’re running it. 🙂

Unless that scarce capability miraculously changes overnight, we should expect to see the following:

  • Tualatins really are going to be relatively hard to come by, and be expensive.
  • We should be skeptical about any pushed-up launches of .13 micron Willies. They may well be paper or near-paper launches.

    Email Ed

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