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2013 Chimp Challenge Race Updates & Musings

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Adak

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 9, 2006
These are linked in with the CC site, and (should) get updated, every hour, at half past the hour:

points_all_adj.png

points_all_adj2.png



This year we're competing against these teams:

Custom PC & Bit-tech: CPC
EVGA
Hardware Canucks Forum: HWC
Overclockers Australia: OCAU
Overclockers.com: OCF
Overclockers.net: OCN
Tech Power Up!: TPU
TSC! Russia : TSC
Vietnam Global Team: VGT


Let's get to know them better, and I'll tell you how I expect they'll do in the race.

Custom PC & Bit-tech: CPC

This is the #7 team in the world, currently. For the race they've had a problem getting things coordinated. A large portion of their folders get info from a magazine, so two way communication, is in short supply.

An example: a few years ago, right at the start of the race, CPC dumped a million points of work units back to Stanford - which it was not supposed to do - but not a single point counted anyway. They had dumped the wu's back, right after Noon on EASTERN TIME, instead of Pacific Daylight Time. So they did it 3 hours too early. :rofl:

My guess: 7th place.

EVGA:

The #1 team in the world in production, and #2 team in ranking. Strong isn't a strong enough word for this team, this year. Their fortunes ride up and down with those little changes that Pande Group makes in their projects, and in the latest releases of NVidia based EVGA brand, GPU's.

Their only weakness is that they are team-centric, and when things take a bad turn, they can turn negative really quick. I don't believe this will be a problem this year, after a bad race last year. They're too smart for that, and their captain is too good.

My guess: 1st place.

Hardware Canucks Forum: HWC

Although they're #19 in the world, they race with a large portion of NCIX team, which is #11 in the world. They won two years ago in a brilliant win, but were stung by some howls of bias. Well there might have been bias in the handicapping, but our Canadian friends had nothing to do with making it up.

They ran an incredible race that year. Sadly, they've been hit by members retiring, and members moving to other teams, etc. - happens to every team, but HWC is small, so they feel it much more keenly.

Enthusiasm is a big part of running a good folding race, and HWC doesn't appear to have it, this year.

My guess: 6th place.

Overclockers Australia: OCAU

A former #1 team in the world rankings (now #8), has been hit very hard by increases (several), in the cost of electricity. They have gone through a big membership decline as a result, and never recovered fully.

This year, their captain was forced to abandon his position due to a family emergency, leading to a lack of good preparation for the race this year.

Nice folders, nice team, but,

My guess is 9th place.

Overclockers.com: OCF

One of the original Chimp Challenge teams, and ranked #4 in the world currently. Currently we have just 244 folders, but we race like a much bigger team. We won last year, with an amazing race!

Very enthusiastic, but our participation in some areas has slacked off. One of our biggest folders (ChasR) has retired from folding. Another mega folder, I'm worried about. Our BOINC teams are racing with us, but with fewer members. It's a definite worry. It's very hard to repeat as the winner, in this race.

My guess: 2nd place, with high volatility, up or down.

Overclockers.net: OCN

This is a team that knows how to win this race, currently the #3 team in the world. Even though they're not a huge team, they race like one. They know enthusiasm counts, and they have it!

Last year, they came in second, and this year, they want #1. Unfortunately, they haven't had the team growth that some others have had.

Have to give props to their team captain, Axipher. He's running the stats site this year AND gave us the Captain's forum, when we needed it.

My guess: 3rd place. (Sorry OCN!) :D

Tech PowerUP: TPU

This is the trap door spider of our race teams. They are small (24 members), but come race time, they really crank out the points. Their weakness is in the last several days of the race. They haven't always kept up the torrid pace they had earlier in the race.

Maybe the April start will help solve that problem since it will be cooler. Maybe the improved v7 folding client will solve that problem. We shall see.

My guess: 8th place

TSC! Russia: TSC

We've had many photo-finishes with this team! Last day passes, have been absolute nail biters. Never made it to first place, but they have a large BOINC team they could draw upon for help in the race, and they are the #5 ranked team in the world. You don't want to underestimate them. Will they succeed in recruiting them?

One characteristic of this team is it's huge swings in production - some updates are a drop in the bucket. Others, they open the fire hose up!

Will they win this year? "Nyet". Do I speak Russian and visit their forum? "Nyet". A bit of a dark horse, to be sure.

My guess: 5th place.

Vietnam Global Team: VG or VGT

Brand new to the race this year, they are the 17th ranked team in the world, with just 37 members. SOMEBODY'S got some power folders on their team!! :thup:

Fitting a team with no racing history, into a handicap race, is full of opportunities for a bias.

They'll do well because of the enthusiasm I've seen repeatedly from their team. They want to win, and they have increased their strength since last year (handicap figures are all based on what each time did last year), so watch out! They have to be the "Dark Horse" favorite to pull off a surprise win.

My guess: 4th place. With big upward potential.

Race Result Prediction

1. EVGA
2. Overclockers.com: OCF
3. Overclockers.net: OCN
4. Vietnam Global Team: VGT
5. TSC! Russia : TSC
6. Hardware Canucks Forum: HWC
7. Custom PC & Bit-tech: CPC
8. Tech Power Up!: TPU
9. Overclockers Australia: OCAU
 
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In fairness to ChasR...he hasn't "Retired" Folding. Number one in Rac for Rostta@Home.

Its not f@H but still folding.

Thanks for the predictions and summaries.
 
Start day -1,

and it's very busy on the forum! Lots of folders have these newer Radeon GPU's that now can fold nicely - but only if they're set up right. I don't know much about setting them up, yet. I see Stanford FAH is full of help requests for them, as well. :eh?: Fortunately, the folding client (v7) is handling a lot of set ups perfectly, by default.

The visitors seem pretty well set. The only problem is with the new setup for the ATI/Radeon GPU's.
 
We've got an enthusiastic team of racers here - I hope that translates into a good start for us. Just a few years back, I can remember we were in LAST PLACE by the second or third day of the race!

It was a freaky worrisome time - you just can't imagine the feeling you get when you're in last place AND all the other teams are leaving you further behind with every update!! :bang head:shock::shock::bang head

There is a cycle we've seen several times when we have had slow starts in the race.

1) You freak out. 2) You recruit teammates (some with offers they allegedly "can't refuse"), :borg:, and 3) You wind up with enough racers to have a decent race.

Decent, but you can't recover fully. You'll finish in the middle of the pack, at best.

We're a bit light on visiting racers this year - we had 49 last year, and so far this year only 37, but we're here at the start of the race, and you run with the team you have - but keep your eyes open throughout the race for other recruiting possibilities. Recruiting is the #1 key to a great race. Keep your eyes open!
 
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I handicapped this, but you couldn't take bets on this, even if it was legal in my state. There is no race history for reference with this point system. Not yet.
 
This is the race update website: http://chimp.axihub.ca/

Each team has a handicap, and this is what is multiplied by the points they fold during the race, to determine their final race points.
CC_teamHandicaps.PNG

Smaller teams with lower race performance in the past (whether actual or projected), have the higher multiplier. The effect is to bring every team up to the level of the strongest team in the race - in this case it's EVGA, so they have a nominal 1 (no increase) multiplier.

1:00 update!

CC_0413_1300hrs.PNG

Obviously SOME TEAM has done a dump of points - betcha, betcha! :rofl:

So after 1 hour, the ranking is:

  1. Vietnam Global
  2. EVGA
  3. Hardware Canucks
  4. Overclockers.net
  5. ** OCF **
  6. TSC! Russia
  7. CustomPC & Bit-tech
  8. Overclockers Australia
  9. TechPowerUp!

Fold! Fold!! Fold!!!
 
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After two hours, we've bumped ourselves up a bit:

CC_0413_1400hrs.PNG

Nice!

  1. Vietnam Global
  2. ** OCF**
  3. OCN
  4. EVGA
  5. Hardware Canucks
  6. TSC! Russia
  7. Custom PC & Bit-tech
  8. Overclockers Australia
  9. Tech Power Up!

I don't understand EVGA's slip this hour. Maybe just a bump in the road. If it continues however, Mr. Negativity may rear his not so handsome face, on that team.

For us, we have a team to catch >>> Vietnam Global!
 
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I like the updates!!
Thanks Adak :attn:
I had a few bumps today but back at it.:comp:
 
After two hours, we've bumped ourselves up a bit:


  1. Vietnam Global
  2. ** OCF**
  3. OCN
  4. EVGA
  5. Hardware Canucks
  6. TSC! Russia
  7. Custom PC & Bit-tech
  8. Overclockers Australia
  9. Tech Power Up!

I don't understand EVGA's slip this hour. Maybe just a bump in the road. If it continues however, Mr. Negativity may rear his not so handsome face, on that team.

For us, we have a team to catch >>> Vietnam Global!


Damn those gooks.
 
points_all_handicaps.png


If SF BA servers are smooth and BA WUs are not scarce, my pick for top 3 :

1) VGT (est ave. 12M ppd, total adjust points: 645M)
2) EVGA (est ave. 45M ppd, total points: 450M)
3) OCF (est ave. 18M ppd, total adjust points: 397M)
 
We have leaped into first place!
CC_0413_1500hrs.PNG

Ranking:
  1. ** OCF **
  2. Vietnam Global
  3. EVGA
  4. CustomPC & Bit-tech
  5. OCN
  6. HWC
  7. TSC! Russia
  8. Overclocker Australia
  9. TPU

No Mandrake, not every hour, but for many of them. The start is a critical time, of course.

The wu dump from VGT means they'll be in a temporary slump, until the next cycle of bigadv wu's can be folded. So it may LOOK like we're ahead, but we may not BE ahead - we may just be cycling back and forth, with them, atm. We won't know which one, for 24 hours or so (that's how long it takes to fold some bigadv work units).

EVGA is back into the race with a tremendous update.

HWC is in for a surprise with TSC! Russia. I'll explain why later.

For now =====> Fold! Fold!! Fold!!!
 
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OK, I nominate KGH for Captain! :p

Voodoo do'er: Do the next two updates, OK? Seriously, give it a whirl. Edit: Nope, he's left the forum.

CC_0413_1600hrs.PNG

We're holding first place nicely, atm! EVGA has just about caught up with the surprising VGT, while CustomPC & Bit-tech is ahead of OCN - quite a surprise. Better watch it, OCN - some Canadians Beavers are getting ready to smack you with their tail! (HWC)

TPU has a rally going, gaining ground against OCAU. Nobody likes being in last place! Been there, done that. :(

Ranking:
  1. ** OCF **
  2. VGT
  3. EVGA
  4. CPC Bit
  5. OCN
  6. HWC
  7. TSC! Russia
  8. OCAU
  9. TPU

Back in two hours.

We've lost (apparently), three great folders for the race. Care to guess who?

Fold! Fold!! Fold!!!
 
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