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Is AMD a sinking ship?

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knightwolf6543

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Jan 12, 2006
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Warren,MI, USA BABY!!
good read and explains alot: http://www.legitreviews.com/article/588/1/

legitreviews said:
Why is it that every time I read an editorial about AMD, it starts with the author portraying them as a sinking ship and ends with them begging to come out with a product that can compete with Intel’s Core 2 series? Sure, AMD’s Athlon 64 series of processors has been eclipsed by Intel’s latest Core 2 series, but has everyone forgotten about the past? AMD and Intel have changed roles as being the pace setter in the microprocessor industry for years, so in a sense this is nothing new. I hate to say it, but the last couple leadership changes were back in September 2003, with the Athlon 64 and its innovative integrated memory controller and again in March of 2000, when AMD beat Intel to the 1GHz mark. Both of these shifts in the industry happened before everyone wrote a blog or had a website, so maybe everyone has just forgotten the past or just wasn’t involved in the tech industry just a few years ago. It’s a shame really, as not only should the past must be remembered, it’s a critical part of journalism. So, forget thinking about AMD as a sinking ship and I’ll tell you the reasons why.
The past few years Intel and AMD have been in a fierce price war that drove prices down for consumers, but at the same time killed their profit margins, which had a negative impact on their stock prices. In the mean time, consumers have gotten used to lower processor prices and see this as a win-win situation; and for those at the checkout aisle, it is. Since Intel processors don’t have an integrated memory controller, the processor has to access the front side, but to fetch data from the system memory (DRAM) and this action takes place on the Front Side Bus (FSB). To help speed up the Intel Core 2 series of processors, Intel has been increasing the front side bus from 800MHz to 1066MHz to 1333MHz and in the future we will certainly see the move to 1600MHz. Think of this as increasing the speed limit of a major interstate, the faster the speed limit the quicker you can get to your final destination. By increasing the frequency of the front side bus, the system memory can be reached quicker, but why not move the data closer?
Well, Intel is also doing this by increasing their L2 cache. When the Intel core 2 microarchitecture was first released they had an L2 cache size of 2MB on Allendale to 4MB on Conroe. Just this week Intel introduced a quad-core part called Yorkfield that features a massive 12MB L2 cache. This now means that Intel has added 66% more L2 cache per core with the move to 45nm over the original entry level Core 2 processor series and 33% more when compared to the Conroe family of dual-core processors! Since the Intel quad-core ‘Kentsfield’ processors are basically two ‘Conroe’ cores paired together, they add up to 8MB L2 cache. So Intel has added 2MB of L2 cache or 66% more over the past couple years. Something I hear from the community here on Legit Reviews is, "Why doesn’t AMD add more cache?"
amd_phenom_24.jpg
Well, AMD has been adding L2 cache. The first Athlon 64 X2 ‘Manchester’ processors featured 512KB L2 cache per core for a total of 1MB L2 cache. AMD then doubled the cache on Athlon 64 X2 ‘Windsor’ series to 1MB L2 cache for a grand total of 2MB of L2 cache. With the upcoming Phenom quad-core series of processors AMD has kept the 2MB L2 cache and has added 2MB L3 cache which is better for their microprocessor architecture. AMD Athlon 64 and Phenom processors have an integrated memory controller, so they don’t have to use a front side bus to access the memory. So, AMD Phenom processors (both quad-core and triple-core) will have 2MB of L2 cache and 2MB of L3 cache. Which is obviously an increase in cache, although it can’t be compared to what Intel is doing. AMD Phenom processors can also take advantage of an improved Hyper-Transport bus if one is used on the 7-series of chipsets as these boards have Hyper-Transport 3.0, which is a speed bump from 2400MHz to 3600MHz. Right about now you might be wondering why I’m rambling about L2 and L3 cache, but it all boils down one thing and the end of the day and its price. AMD Phenom processors may not have the clock per clock muscle to beat out the Penryn and Yorkfield Intel processors, but it costs far less to make them partially thanks to the overall smaller cache sizes.
When it comes to cost, die size plays a critical role and Intel has the 45nm process down pat, but nothing is wrong with AMD’s 65nm process. Sure the smaller the nm the more dies can be put on a wafer thus reducing costs, but remember 12MB of L2 cache versus 4MB of L2/L3 cache makes a difference too. AMD has millions fewer transistors per die, which means lower power consumption, less heat generating transistors and ultimately lower prices. Of course AMD needs to start moving things over to a 45nm process, sooner rather than later, but it doesn’t have to happen today.
The take home message here is that AMD, from my point of view, is not a sinking ship. They just need to make sure they get out their next generation of processors and chipsets out on time. AMD has been delayed getting numerous products out the door as scheduled and that is without a doubt hurting them. Sure AMD will have the first ‘true’ quad-core processor, but how many consumers really cares if something is true or not? Could you imagine walking into Best Buy or Circuit City and hearing a sales associate telling a customer "This one is better because it’s native quad-core, but the other one is quad-core". That wouldn’t obviously work with the average consumer, which is the direction AMD has been aiming the majority of their marketing and product series. The best marketing tool AMD has is to sell the complete package. By offering processors, chipsets and video cards all under the AMD brand name they have the ability to tweak each component to make sure it’s stable and at the right price point. If AMD falls a bit short on performance they can lower the prices on their components 10-20% across the board making their platform the best bang for the buck. Since their products use fewer transistors and cost less to make, it means that Intel and Nvidia has more to loose, should they choose to engage in another price war. Just this week AMD's master distributor, ISA Hardware leaked out Phenom pricing and has shows the preliminary prices as $247, $278 and $288 respectively for the processor in a box versions of the the 2.2GHz 9500, 2.3Ghz 9600 and 2.4GHz 9700 quad-core processors. This means that right now BEFORE launch a 2.4GHz Phenom is priced at $288 and a 2.4GHz Kentsfield is $269. Hopefully after launch the price on the Phenom processors will drop below that of the Intel Q6600 as it needs to be, if they want to be competitive in the enthusiast market.

Lastly, there is always the chance that Intel slips up and if there was to be such a time it would be on their Nehalem based system architecture. After mainstream Penryn and the 45nm Hi-k silicon technology introductions in January 2008 comes Intel's next-generation microarchitecture (Nehalem) slated for initial production sometime in 2008 (five years after AMD went to an integrated memory controller). Nehalem will be Intel’s first processor with scalable and configurable system interconnects and integrated memory controllers. That will be a major change for Intel and history has shown if a stumble is to happen it is at one of these junctures.
 
i remember that AMD was owning intel hard for a long time. i think people have this idea that AMD sucks cause Intel is more well know.

It has less to do with being well known than it has to do with being well funded. AMD beat the pants off of Intel for a few years straight in hardware performance, but never in sales or revenue or money management. Intel could afford to be in second place in performance for a few years, because they were always ahead in manufacturing, and making the most profit per CPU sold. They also have pockets as deep as 10 AMD's or more considering AMD's pockets are turned inside out these days.
 
This is why I'm building a 16core AMD box!

legitreviews.com said:
"AMD has millions fewer transistors per die, which means lower power consumption, less heat generating transistors and ultimately lower prices."
Big Time
 
Well i'll chime in because looking at avatars, might show some fanboyism...except for hank123......which is where I want to be and....oh yeah...cpu's...

I've always thought this, AMD is not a sinking ship, but they're in a bind and it doesn't really matter if they're CPU's are better than intel, enthusiasts makeup for jack#$!% of Intels and AMD's profit.

The battle will continue to seesaw and that's good. Having a slower CPU isn't hurting AMD, it's them getting into (actualy not rather) business with dell/hp/gateway etc that is important.

I have no brand loyalty, I bought AMD for my first every build...and have flip flopped back and forth going by what is the best price/performance. Last time I checked if you stayed with AMD or Intel during a drought, you didn't get a prize, from them, or a discount on your next purchase...you just got hosed by getting a inferior product for a price that wasn't worth it (if you bought on loyalty and not performance/price).

As for the article talking about how AMD needs to come out of its hole...when Intel was down (remember when X2's were stomping intel?) we were reading about how intel had come out.
 
Come on. This is a bunch of bologna. People were saying this crap when it was the Athlon XP vs the P4.
 
amd is down but not out.

it should avoid a price war with intel though. it's a battle it'll never win (intel has more fabs, about to introduce 45nm cpus and deeper pockets).
 
Doesn't really seem to add anything new, what haven't been discussed many times over and over, leaves out facts to back it up.

Would rather recommend these two articles.

The business of technology AMD
The Business of technology Intel

He compares cache when Intel makes it's cache more dense so it does not translate the same way to size for AMD.
Wonder why did he forgot to mention the die size for both processors, Phenom is bigger than Penryn there goes the cheaper to manufacture especially if we add Intel sticks 2 cores together.
Penryn despite the bigger cache is 30% smaller than today's C2d, on the other hand AMD is going to sell a significantly bigger chip than the 6400+ for a little more.

"AMD has millions fewer transistors per die, which means lower power consumption, less heat generating transistors and ultimately lower prices."

I guess he knows something and the 125W 2.4G rumors are false, that's really good, and again it's not the transistor count that really matters for price.


Yeah the prices are odd, later it will find the right spot. Which gonna be interesting with the Q9300 and an IP35 combo might do 4G with the mobos 500+ FSB for 50K Yen. :drool:

Few days and we see how this long avaited Core2Owner performs he could have waited with the article and then write what happens with those results.

Hoping that intel slips isn't enough, AMD should deliver on time what seems to be a problem recently.

Intel already began to divide the enthusiast cpu from the low end, by pushing prices to 1500 max. With nehas integrated IMC for enthusiast and northbridge for low end seems they will be able to separate the two segments really well.
If AMD can't come up with something to compete on the up intel can wage war with then on lower end with their advanced manufacture and earn on the top.

If AMD can't beat a 1.5 year old arch with the development time of K10 and with the resources of their prime how will they do it when Intel seems to be steamrolling and their budget gets smaller ?

That's why people really hope AMD can respond to Intel the question is not whether the company lives on or not, Via also exist doesn't it ?
The question is can they break even or not if they can while maintaning their research, then anything can happen even Intel might fail again.
For us unfortunately that's still not enough if they can't deliver performance the OC, the exodus to Intel wil continue.
 
I am going to sit here blinking in wonder at this 150w CPU.... For special purpose use. Do you folders and crunchers have a boner yet?

The AMD FireStream 9170 will be the world’s first Stream GPU with double-precision floating point technology tailored for scientific and engineering calculations. Competitively priced at an MSRP of $1999 USD, it features up to 500 GFLOPS1 of compute power, rivalling many of today’s supercomputers, and providing dramatic acceleration for critical algorithms. This second generation Stream Processor is built with 55 nm process technology and consumes less than 1502 watts of power – delivering an exceptional performance per watt. In addition, the reduced heat dissipation allows it to function in dense design configurations.



1 Refers to peak single precision performance of AMD FireStream 9170 Processor. Based on 320 stream cores and engine clock rates of 775-800MHz.
 
amd is down but not out.

it should avoid a price war with intel though. it's a battle it'll never win (intel has more fabs, about to introduce 45nm cpus and deeper pockets).

But don't you see though? This is the exact same thing that happened with P4 and Athlon XP. Athlon XP's were a dime a dozen before the A64 was launched on socket 754. AMD must undercut Intel's prices in the short term. I don't think you realize that this is only a short term solution.
 
boner isn't the word I would use at this time.

Yea I just want a new rig but until I see what this company has in there back pocket as it hasn't been put on the market for a long time almost 2 yr IMO what was am2 anyways?

Still waits on 4x2 or whatever 4x4 from the boy's.......


With the upcoming Phenom quad-core series of processors AMD has kept the 2MB L2 cache and has added 2MB L3 cache which is better for their microprocessor architecture. AMD Athlon 64 and Phenom processors have an integrated memory controller, so they don’t have to use a front side bus to access the memory. So, AMD Phenom processors (both quad-core and triple-core) will have 2MB of L2 cache and 2MB of L3 cache. Which is obviously an increase in cache, although it can’t be compared to what Intel is doing. AMD Phenom processors can also take advantage of an improved Hyper-Transport bus if one is used on the 7-series of chipsets as these boards have Hyper-Transport 3.0, which is a speed bump from 2400MHz to 3600MHz.
 
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⭕-/:shrug::bang head

edit: guess i should elaborate....

amd has been in worse situations, sure, the aquisition of ATI was a risk, one we've yet to see the true benefits of, but those benefits are coming.... for many reasons other than technology, but also, and majorly important fact that the agreement with intel to make x86 cpu's included a clause that AMD could only outsource a certain percentage of it's production, the ati aquisition adds to the total production capacity thus meaning they can outsource many more cpu's to fabs (such as chartered, tsmc, etc...), let's also not forget the new fabs built, being built, and that are about to be built

i seriously doubt these fabs would be being built if they were going under

even then, should the doom alot of intel fanboys hopes will happen, which would be amd going under, too many governments would fork over money to get them back on their feet to avoid the monopoly Intel seems to want

so tired of these ignorant opines from idiotic analysts and FUD spreaders
 
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AMD may not be a sinking ship, but they sure as hell have some holes to plug. This author is wrong about the cost of producing the processors. Yes they have a lot less cache, and ultimately less transistors (820 million for Penryn QC compared to 463 million for K10 QC), but AMD still has much bigger dies.

I haven't been able to find numbers for die size for the Penryn Quad Core, but the dual-core variant is 107mm2, which tells me the quad core will be around 214mm2 (since Intel's QC is after all two dual's tacked together). On the other hand Barcelona weighed in at 283mm2. Seems to me like it will cost AMD a bunch more per chip.

At the same time, their performance is not competitive. The fastest AMD quad core scheduled for this year is the 2.4ghz Phenom, if that costs any more than the Q6600, who would buy it? AMD fanboys sure, but anyone looking for bang/buck? AMD will have to drop prices on the Phenoms soon after they come out, to the point where even they aren't that profitable any more.

AMD has been selling a lot of K8s recently, but they've been selling them at prices that are not sustainable. I love seeing the $65 dual-core myself, but AMD isn't making a profit on that sale. What AMD needed was a chip that would sweep the floor with Conroe and Kentsfield so that they could pump up their average selling price. What we have is a chip that in the best case barely matches up clock per clock, and doesn't clock nearly as high. Ultimately AMD will be able to sell these chips, but they'll do it at a crazy low price that won't help them out much.

I think Ed's article today pretty much sums up their problem:
http://overclockers.com/tips01242/

What I would love to see AMD do would be to focus a lot of attention on high speed dual-core K10s. For the average user, and even the power user (aside from a few specialized applications) quad-core wont offer an advantage for a long time. Why not release 3ghz+ K10 duallies that for gamers and home users that even with a price drop would make them more profitable than the quads and more competitive in games and general performance benchmarks.

That way they could fight the price war with Intel on the dual-core front. For most people I know even a K8 dual-core is overkill for what they do, unless they're doing it in Vista. I don't know that many people who don't play games whose computing needs wouldn't be satisfied by Asus's Eee PC.

But the dual-cores have to be semi-competitive with Intel's options for AMD to get a decent price for them from the OEMs. Right now they're selling K8s at a pittance, I think a K10 would fetch a bit more, perhaps enough to get them to profitable chip sales.
 
I found the same numbers so made me wonder what makes this guy think it's cheaper to make a monolithic quad bigger quad, Intel is pretty much prepared for a price war on quads.
 
AMD is not in the hole, they are doing just what they wanted to do. they be booming in the server market, one of the many deals they bad was a sale of 25,000 barc cpus, even if they sold for $100 each
thats $2.5 million. then again you also got to think of profit so they probable sold for more then $100.
of course AMD is still having problems with manufacturing at 65NM, which actually is a good thing. cause once they get those fixed, phenom will bench better and o/c better. sure AMD isnt currently appealing to most in the retail market but barc are selling like a bunch of big fat fatty's at a MacDonald's in the server market.
i'm a amd fan boy but i dont think amd will overtake intel again till either shanghai or sandtiger.
as for those avatars that say core 2 duo owned they are true, source
 
whats thats what amd was originally wanted to do, take down C2D which they did, they did it with a quad. its not the greatest when it comes to high end market but then again the chips tested are not the high end chips amd is coming out with. i think the tested chip was a sample o/c to 3 Ghz
 
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