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Junebug’s pricing guidance on 939 Opterons

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gulp35

Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2002
Gulp and I have been looking very closely at the new 939 Opterons. We like the high over clocking potential and the modest pricing. The question is when to buy. It seems the supply lines are not filled yet and the suppliers who do have them want a premium over what AMD is selling them for based on the pricing on AMD’s site: http://www.amd.com/us-en/Processors/ProductInformation/0,,30_118_609,00.html?redir=CPT301 in thousand unit sales.

So what can we expect for pricing in the near term when the major discount suppliers get these. I am not talking about the reduction due to AMD scaling down price in the future (which is also going to happen). Just what should we be paying relative to AMD’s pricing for thousand unit purchases.

As a guide ( just a guide!), I compared AMD’s thousand unit prices to Anandtech’s pricing of Dual cores, standard core A64s and, some Opterons. For dual cores, we see:
Dual Core AMD (9/28/05) in 000's) AnandTech pricing (10/5/05) Delta
3800 354 353-365 -1 to +11
4200 482 473 -9
4400 537 526 -11
4600 704 690 -14
4800 902 884 -18


So for AMD’s latest and greatest, just introduced a few months ago, we pay ten to twenty dollars less than their quoted thousand unit price.

For standard cores, it is a little more confusing because AMD does not specify the specific core, where Anandtech does (or tries to):
AnandTech pricing (10/5/05)
Single core AMD (9/28/05) in 000's) Winchester Venice Hammer Newcastle San Diego Delta
3000 149 130 146 xxx xxx xxx -3 to -19
3200 194 131 190 xxx xxx xxx -4
3500 223 230 219 230 231 xxx -4 to+8
3700 272 xxx xxx xxx xxx 269 -4
3800 329 xxx 323 xxx 303 xxx -6 to -26
4000 375 xxx xxx 368 xxx 368 -7
(Sorry about the xxx'x, the only way to keep the columns straight!)

Here, in the more competitive market, we see pricing of about $5 less typically than the AMD volume price.

OK, so what about Opteron pricing. I compared only 200 series (because I think pricing on the 100’s is likely very confused right now) and here, in this specialty market we find:
Opterons AMD (9/28/05) in 000's) AnandTech pricing (10/5/05) Delta
240 158
242 158 163 5
244 192 163 -29
246 219 209 -10
248 327 316 -9
144 125
146 183
148 263

The low end 240 -244 are on the way out so I would not trust these values as much as the 246 and 248 which show our typical 10 discount from AMD’s list pricing.

So what price should we expect for 939 Opterons? I think $115 to 120 for 144’s, $175-180 for 146s and $255-260 for 148’s. If you can wait a few weeks, I think you will see these prices, and will not kick yourself that you threw away cash you could be spending on other neat toys. Do not pay $150+ preordering for a 144 which will be $115 in three or four weeks!
 
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Yah, but if you're like me, and you currently have everything you need except for a s939 proc, it might be worth the extra 20-40 to have a chip ASAP instead of spending a month with no gaming rig :(. I'm allmost ready to buy a venice and be done with it for a while. I'm tired of no games!!


Nice guide, and thanks for the info!!

J.
 
gulp35 said:
I think $115 to 120 for 144’s... If you can wait a few weeks, I think you will see these prices

that seems kinda low... $115 for a cpu that outpaces a $130 3000+ venice? the lowest actual retail price i've seen so far is US$150 (which considering circumstances, is TOTALLY worth it if everything we've heard so far is true) so it behooves me to ask: how many weeks, and will prices for venice cpus simultaneously drop as well?

of greatest concern is that future cpus may not be cut of the same cloth as the gems availible now (of course, the reverse may be true and maybe future 14XDs won't heat up as much when going from single to dual channel to 2x1gb dual channel :-/ ). there's no such thing as a 'sure' thing but odds look good that a properly coddled 144D availible today can overclock like a dream...


-which brings me to a request... there is currently a retailer selling 144Ds at about US$150 that offers standard 2 day shipping in CA (and apparently nowhere else) but i can't recall which and i lost the link... if anyone knows what i'm talking about, please drop me a line! i'm willing to pay an 'extra' $35 to get my hands on one of these babies right now :D
 
OK,

AMD has just knocked down the prices again for 1XX series opetron's. So much for the rumors of prices going up! 144's now list for $111, and 146 for $125. I would look for prices settling in at $105-115 for the 144's and and $120-130 for the 146's.

The 146's look like the sweat spot in the pricing scheme. $15 for more flexibility in multiplier. Not a bad payoff.

The question is when will they be here in volume (that is when we will get the corrrect market pricing). As accurate as the rumors have been to date, I would say there is no way of telling.

I feel sorry for the people that got "helped" by some special friend to get a 144 or 146 early at $50 to $100 more than market price. Maybe those special connections will post a picture of the new car they bought with all those "donations".


Junebug ( Gulp's "other" personality)
 
gulp35 said:
I feel sorry for the people that got "helped" by some special friend to get a 144 or 146 early at $50 to $100 more than market price. Maybe those special connections will post a picture of the new car they bought with all those "donations"
I think you may be missing an important point. You assume that later production models will perform at the level of the initial production models, an assumption which is not borne out by reality. The only people to feel sorry for are the recipients of the CABGE's, who bought Opterons hoping for 3+GHz, yet find themselves struggling to reach 2.7GHz. You may also be feeling sorry for those who wait even longer. Then again, an excellent new stepping may surface. But it may not; it is in this risk that you hedge your bet.

If you are looking at the 144 or 146 as a cheap San Diego running at or near stock, then your point is well taken. But if the current trend continues (or merely perpetuates), I think that the owners of the amazing clockers are more than happy with the premium they paid. I certainly am.
 
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