PCs are dying

[diaz]

Xbox is mainstream.. I think that if PC gets 17% of the market share, then that is pretty good. Definitely an industry worth seeking if it is only 35% behind PS3...

If you take into account that a PS3 is on average 4 times cheaper than a PC, I would say that makes a huge army of PC owners, that have bought a decent video card in the last 2 years.

And that's just the sales figures for that game, which of course doesn't have any sources.

 

[Bobnova]

As a good contrast to a first person game, look up the sales figures for civ5.
Then you'll have something fairly balanced, as opposed to biased in the consoles favor.

 

[EarthDog]

If that information was sourced we can do it... For now, its just pulled out of............ehhh, thin air.

Also, that Tom's link is an editorial from 2008... its someone's opinion on the matter...like all of ours!

 

[diaz]

Ivy,

We still see computer parts on websites, we buy them, new stuff is coming out for them, there are games down the pipeline, there are currently awesome games to play, now please just bow out and rest easy that one of these days we will all be proven wrong. Until this day, that oh so glorious day when nVidia and AMD stop producing gear, and games stop being available, then you can put your hands behind your head and cross your legs on your desk and sigh in satisfaction.

Cheers.

 

[57udl3y]

Total Units Sold:
PC (in 2011) 352.4 Million
Tablets (in 2011) 55 million
Xbox 360 (since launch) 66 million
PS3 (since launch) 60 million (est.)
Wii (since launch) 90 million

Put things into perspective, and a reminder the majority of computers aren't used by enthusiasts or hardcore gamers. They are going to be here for many more years to come.

 

[EarthDog]

57 - Source?

 

[diaz]

Quick google shows 57 is right about PC sales.

These stats are all over the net:

http://www.itchannelplanet.com/tren...t-US-Q4-PC-Market-Slides-Nearly-7-Percent.htm

Global shipments of PCs for 2010 totaled some 351 million units for a 13.8 percent increase over last year, dwarfing the industry’s 5.5 percent uptick in 2009, according to preliminary figures compiled by researcher Gartner Inc.

Worldwide PC sales over the years since 1998



http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/jul/14/idc-pc-second-quarter-2011-worldwide-sales

Sales of PCs in the second quarter of 2011 grew by just over 2% worldwide year-on-year, with declines in both the US and Europe, according to figures from the research companies IDC and Gartner.

IDC pegged the total number sold at 84.41m, marking a growth of 2.6%, while Gartner had a slightly higher total but smaller growth, of 85.2m shipped for a 2.3% increase. The two companies use slightly different estimates for shipments. Neither counts tablets such as the iPad as a PC in its figures.

Netbook sales continued to fall, they said, and consumers and businesses in the US and western Europe are holding off buying new PCs as budgets are squeezed. But in Asia sales are booming, notably in India and China, which saw growth of around 10%. Latin America also saw strong growth.

Ivy's statments have thus far been opinion based, since his statements still remain to be backed up by anything but opinions.

 

[EarthDog]

Thanks Diaz! It certainly helps a discussion when information like this is sourced. I dont know Ivy or 57 from a hole in the ground, so supporting data is paramount in discussions for buy in.

 

[57udl3y]

Thanks Diaz! It certainly helps a discussion when information like this is sourced. I dont know Ivy or 57 from a hole in the ground, so supporting data is paramount in discussions for buy in.

Sorry for leaving out sources before, here they are:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/library/historical_data/pdf/consolidated_sales_e1109.pdf
http://www.vgchartz.com/hardware_totals.php
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/sep/15/ipad-tablet-market-2011-forecast

 

[Mario1]

Tell 3D animation techs / TV programmers, graphic designers, Engineers, scientists, PC gamers, that they will get those in exchange for their current machines, they will laugh at you.

If anything, PC will simply transition into smaller solutions, with more computational power with smaller footprints.

Maybe in the next few generations.. New form factor or something.

diaz is THE MAN!
I totally agree with you, PCs will evolve, but won't disappear.

 

[diaz]

Thanks

Definitely puts it to rest though, thanks 57!

 

[Diggrr]

I would like to see PC's evolve into tablets. That's where faster & smaller logically lead...far future maybe, maybe not.
Docking with a full sized KVM would be welcome though, blurring the lines...

20-25 years ago my ITX's power would require an entire computer lab of equipment. It's not unreasonable to expect an i7 2600K equivalent in a tablet in 10 more.

 

[mjw21a]

I know from having worked many years in large corporate environments that PC's aren't about to disappear anything soon. Databases and apps are consistently being developed with a web front end and a database back end so I believe most things will continue down this path. I've noticed that with PC replacements we're no longer buying i5's and i7's for most business units but rather the less expensive i3's and always in small form factors.

It's important to have local processing power for when there are network outages and other outages as there's always work that can be done. However on a thin client such an outage is crippling and the cost in lost productivity is enormous.

My belief is that smaller, less powerful desktop computers are the way of the future. Basic work can be done on the computer itself though many things will continue to transition to internal "clouds". Likewise, other legacy applications will be virtualised due to the difficulty of getting these apps to work on newer MS operating systems.

The future is not one technology but rather a blend of the 3. 1, local computing. 2, internal "cloud" type computing. 3, virtualization of apps

Yes, this is just my opinion though its something I've seen through personal experience over the last few years. We even tried going thin client once more last year.... Within a year people had moved back to their old desktops. Too unreliable and inflexible.

 

[Ivy]

As a good contrast to a first person game, look up the sales figures for civ5.
Then you'll have something fairly balanced, as opposed to biased in the consoles favor.

Civ 5 is PC only... therefore one of the few stuff not competing.

350M PCs...
Its from that one, right? http://www.worldometers.info/computers/

Same source to tell that we have 1 Billion PCs active now, but ofc... the 80M consoles will have better game sells. But its probably the industry and the browser surfers who need 900M fully sized desktop PCs for. I dont know where they get those numbers but it will always stay vague so we can aswell finish with argumentation.

Here my source, ofc thats only the "startup sell", but we are now close to 10M units yet, but i dont expect it to change that much from those percentage, its hard enough to get any numbers at all. All i usualy get is "hurray we got 10M, and Steam is so successfull", but not a single word about console sells. Apparently XBox 360 was lead plattform and will get addons first.
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/88459/skyrim-sales-exceed-34-million-units-in-two-days/

But i hear devs complaining about PCs not being affordable to focus on... to have the need for multisystem development. PC software, especially games, losing lot of efficiency, thats a proven condition by me. While enthusiast tell the exactly opposite of it, i finally wish i have to power to see every single statitics and every little detail, but i simply cant, so i wont be able to understand this world anymore.

Sadly, those limited knowledge cant satisfy me, but thats probably not intended. Every attempt to show even the slightest doubts about, is setting our users into enrage mode, being attacked by mods and what else, i give up.

 

[TempliNocturnus]

I know from having worked many years in large corporate environments that PC's aren't about to disappear anything soon. Databases and apps are consistently being developed with a web front end and a database back end so I believe most things will continue down this path. I've noticed that with PC replacements we're no longer buying i5's and i7's for most business units but rather the less expensive i3's and always in small form factors.

It's important to have local processing power for when there are network outages and other outages as there's always work that can be done. However on a thin client such an outage is crippling and the cost in lost productivity is enormous.

My belief is that smaller, less powerful desktop computers are the way of the future. Basic work can be done on the computer itself though many things will continue to transition to internal "clouds". Likewise, other legacy applications will be virtualised due to the difficulty of getting these apps to work on newer MS operating systems.

The future is not one technology but rather a blend of the 3. 1, local computing. 2, internal "cloud" type computing. 3, virtualization of apps

Yes, this is just my opinion though its something I've seen through personal experience over the last few years. We even tried going thin client once more last year.... Within a year people had moved back to their old desktops. Too unreliable and inflexible.

Funny you say that some work can get done without network connectivity--I work in one of the largest and most dynamic IT environment in the world, and when our users loose network connectivity, they get NOTHING at all done; I'm not trying to disagree with you though. We work in somewhat different environments but we're seeing the same trends. To me, it's more than reasonable to believe that once fast, highly reliable network infrastructure is in place, a private cloud with thin/zero clients will become the practical and more preferred computing solution.

It's also funny how people are saying that the PC will 'evolve' and not die... Sure. The future of the PC is that it'll become embedded into things that we use everyday--you'll be able to wear your PC as you do clothing. Objects that currently lack any electronics what-so-ever will be made 'Smart' and become your PC. You will have no need for a dedicated box on your desk to provide you with computing power; your desk itself will be capable of providing you with a productivity software suite, web browser, and email. And then it will then be networked to many other appliances you use that currently lack any advanced logic circuitry. At what point will you no longer be able to call it a 'personal computer'?

The interesting thing is that this technology exists today: Samsung has a smart window, and Microsoft has a smart table. I'd say that there exists an extremely high probability we'll see this technology become mainstream within the next 5-10 years. And as it does so, and networking technologies continue to evolve, its dependency on the cloud will grow even more.