Heater core choice ... need some help

I've been struggling with PQ curves, head loss curves and C/W curves, but I just can't get there. What I want to know is, with the following setup, (keeping in mind that quiet is a big consideration) can I get temps in the neighborhood of 35c idle and 44c load:

overclocked A64 3200 (Venice I hope) - expect about 204 Watts to be generated (overclocked)

Cooled with:

MCW6002 - (CPU only)

Aqua Extreme 50Z

Swiftech Bay res

Tygon 1/2" ID tubing I'd guess about 5 feet

mid-tower case, fairly unrestrictive loop, no 90 degree angles or kinks, 1/2" fittings, good airflow through case (dual lower front 80mm fans, 80mm rear exhaust fan, 120mm bottom oriented PSU fan).

Single 120mm heater core (going with hc for price consideration)

single shrouded Panaflo L1A 120mm fan at 12V

The big question is whether the single heater core with the L1A Panaflo will give me temps like that.

Alternatively,

single heater core with panaflo M1A 120mm fan

or

double heater core with panaflo L1A fans

or am I way off base?

Edit: room temp is about 21c.

If you can fit the double heatercore, you should go for it. It should give you significantly better temps, and its not like its more expensive. If I were you I would get some more powerful fans, such as maybe the Panaflo H1A, and put them on a fan controller, running them at 7v - or lower - when youre not gaming or doing CPU intensive processes. When you are, all you have to do is turn the dial and your CFM will increase greatly, and as will your temps. At 7v, the H1A fans would probably give a simillar cfm/dba ratio as the L1A fans, but they also have the ability to go higher. Thats a guess, I havent actually heard them, but it would make sense. But either way, if you can fit the double heatercore, by all means get that. A single would work however (just not yield as good temps), but the double also gives you plenty of headroom if you also want to add a GPU block somewhere down the line.

Yeah, I'm beginning to realize that to do the sort of overclocking I want, I'm gonna need the dualie. I have a hard time with those fans though. Now I have a 92x38 Vantec Tornado at 119CFM and 56db on my heatsink and it sounds like a 747 about to take off. I'm selling the expense of the watercooling system to my wife on the quiet aspect, so the fans are gonna be tough.

What I'm starting to gather from reading Bill Adams' stuff and other reviews and articles is that the most critical aspect of system performance is the size of the heat exchanger and the amount of air pushed through it. That seems to have a bigger impact on overall performance than the choice of waterblock, pump or tubing. I bet you could go out and get a G5 Storm, a 600GPH pump, 3/4" Tygon tubing, least restrictive loop possible, and if you put a tiny radiator/fan on it, it wouldn't cool jack.

On the other hand, you could get the most marginally performing wb, pump and tubing, but put a monster radiator with 220CFM fans all over it and that sucker would smack you right down to ambient.

A single hc would fit nice inside my case, but I'm gonna have to get creative to use that dual hc. New case is out of the question, just got one a few months ago.