Chawken's Predictions

[Morpheus]

Just a note about Chawken's predictions (from 8/2/01) in the other thread...

250,000 WU's...................08/08/01
500,000 WU's approx.......01/31/02

Top 50 by Xmas.

Interesting how ACCURATE Carl was... he missed the 500,000 WU mark by about 48 hours.... and that was acutally 6 MONTHS ago...

Nice job Carl...

 

[Cy]

Hey Chawk...what are the odds of my getting a raise this year?

Cy

 

[TC]

On the other hand it shows we have had a fairly linear rate of growth over all those months - not bad, but not what I had hoped for...

 

[Yodums]

Way to go Chawken.

We should hit 1 mil some what 2.5 months from now I'm guessing as technology sped up alot more 4 months ago.

Yodums

 

[Sir-Epix]

Way to go Chawken.

We should hit 1 mil some what 2.5 months from now I'm guessing as technology sped up alot more 4 months ago.

Yodums

You forgot...Berkeley addes more science...increase the range of the frenquencies checked to keep up with science.

 

[Godfodda]

That's some smooth prediction there. Can we shake his head up like the Magic 8 Ball and ask him other questions?

 

[Morpheus]

On the other hand it shows we have had a fairly linear rate of growth over all those months - not bad, but not what I had hoped for...

Tim, I would have thought the growth to be exponential... but perhaps you are right there....

 

[TC]

Tim, I would have thought the growth to be exponential... but perhaps you are right there....

Well, what I'm saying is if he was able to predict this as well as he has starting 6 months ago, then our rate of growth has stayed the same as it was then. I'm assuming he made the prediction given the rate of growth at that time. Given that, our rate of growth did not increase - unless I'm completely missing something. I suspected that as we grew larger our membership would increase at a faster pace.... sort of like larger objects have more gravity and will attrack more objects, as well as larger objects etc.

 

[chawken]

Well, what I'm saying is if he was able to predict this as well as he has starting 6 months ago, then our rate of growth has stayed the same as it was then. I'm assuming he made the prediction given the rate of growth at that time. Given that, our rate of growth did not increase - unless I'm completely missing something. I suspected that as we grew larger our membership would increase at a faster pace.... sort of like larger objects have more gravity and will attrack more objects, as well as larger objects etc.

Actually - the Excel sheet that I was using took into account predicted rate of growth, also. I used a forecasting formula, which calculated rate of team growth, vs WU's per capita.

I'm ****ed that I missed by 48hrs.

 

[jokrswild]

but if berkeley adds more science, do they have to do the old WU's over again? Or do they just do that bit of science on each work unit already done themselves?


-proud memeber of the novastar seti team

 

[Mictlan]

I can tell you that the constant (almost) WU output has been held for the past 2 months. If you are into statistics we have been like the folowing:
Period (12/3/01- 2/4/02)
Rate of growth (m)=1,612.3
Origin (b)=-59,624,875.4
r^2=0.9994

As you can see we are a fairly accuarte line

At least we are not loosing ground, like Picard.

We need to increase our output people.....

 

[Godfodda]

At least we are not loosing ground, like Picard.

We need to increase our output people.....

I'm givin' 'er oll she's got Keptin! I think she's gonta blow!

Well, my bank account anyway.

 

[Sir-Epix]

Well, what I'm saying is if he was able to predict this as well as he has starting 6 months ago, then our rate of growth has stayed the same as it was then. I'm assuming he made the prediction given the rate of growth at that time. Given that, our rate of growth did not increase - unless I'm completely missing something. I suspected that as we grew larger our membership would increase at a faster pace.... sort of like larger objects have more gravity and will attrack more objects, as well as larger objects etc.

Yes that will work for an infinite pool, but you have to remember that we are in a finite pool. There are only so many crunchers out there, so you have to adjust for that mathmatically. This is probably were you are having a hard time understanding. OC.com has done a good job of attracting people. With a finite pool your growth should shrink.