When is the GPUpocalypse going to end?

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magellan

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Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Just for laughs I looked at the pricing of 1080ti's on ebay. It was a shock and they are selling at these ludicrous prices. If Intel doesn't make a big splash with their Arc Alchemist line of GPU's computer gaming is over for me.
 

mackerel

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Joined
Mar 7, 2008
Material and transportation shortages don't seem to have any end in the near future. So if Intel are additional GPU source on top of what AMD and nvidia are producing, it could help somewhat. I recently saw a claimed leaked slide targeting the top Arc model at 3070 levels, which aligns with my past performance prediction, so that would still cover a large part of the PC gaming market. I however would not expect Intel to come in much cheaper than the established players at a given performance level. It'll be a tricky balancing act for Intel, set a low MSRP and a high street will look bad. Set a higher MSRP and risk awkward situations if supplies do ease in future.

One risk area for the wider market is that Intel are using TSMC N6 process for this, which is related to and improved on N7. Could Intel taking up capacity at TSMC directly or indirectly impact AMD's capability to supply in future?

Random: As I had interest elsewhere, I finally extracted my 1080Ti with the intent on selling it. I did/do have surplus GPUs, which I guess is not a bad position to be in, but it is time to move the older generations. The 1080Ti will be my last higher end gaming level GPU to move.
 

EarthDog

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Dec 15, 2008
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Intel doesn't have much to do with it as competition is not the driver for what's going on in the GPU world. Between shortages of materials, logistics, bots, and miners, there's just not enough to go around.

When/if the mining bubble bursts you'll see GPUs flood the market. But until they can produce more and get them where they need to go, this will last for quite a while. I expect well into 2022 as do most who covered this with articles in the recent past.
 

mackerel

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Joined
Mar 7, 2008
It has been questioned how much of an impact mining has had on the GPU situation. There are claims that even if mining wasn't a thing, there still wouldn't be enough GPUs to satisfy the gaming market. A bit more gaming supply certainly would help. It might mean a bit lower pricing. That's what we'll have to wait and see with Intel's entry early next year. Can they provide enough additional volume to make an impact? They're going to have a fun time pricing it.
 

EarthDog

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Dec 15, 2008
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Yeah, not sure how much of a role it played, but it's part of it and absolutely worth mentioning. That and you'll see a flood of used GPUs hit so those waiting, some of them, will jump on those. I don't think Intel's addition to the market is going to do much, but it depends on performance (around a 3070 is the flagship?) pricing and availability.
 

Woomack

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Joined
Jan 2, 2005
I feel like mining is a higher % of all sales than some people think. Only cards efficient for mining are selling well (read when the price isn't ridiculous then are disappearing from the store in 1h). All other models are available in stores ... but we can already see a shortage of all models and prices are again going up. Prices in the EU and availability were even acceptable for many models for maybe 2 months. When RX6600XT was released then it cost about 20-30% less than it costs in the new deliveries. The same RX6700XT or Nvidia LHR models were already 20% cheaper than they are in the fresh deliveries. You can see how various brands are going up in all stores looking at price checker websites (I'm checking in the EU so can't say much about the US). RTX3070Ti after release could be found for ~820 EUR(inc VAT), now you can't find it below ~1100 EUR. Tomorrow I will probably get a white Strix RTX3070 which cost me ~900 EUR (inc 23% VAT). All other stores where it's available, have it for 1100 EUR+, and it's barely available.
It's funny but I set on auction my GTX1080Ti a couple of days ago and the auction ends today. I thought it's a good time to sell it. I highly doubt that some gamers are bidding when for about the same price can get new RX6600XT or RTX3060 which is about the same for gaming while having a lower hash rate.

What is weird for me is that people are talking about the crisis, problems because of covid, problems with jobs, high local inflation and other things like that ... and they jump on every new and highly overpriced electronics or buy expensive other things like cars, etc. much more than ~2 years ago. In Poland is not going well but somehow in this very large IT market, everything sells as long as the price is not really ridiculous like 70% above MSRP. In this situation, I see no reason why graphics cards or other electronics prices should go down ... it's selling great so who would lower profits? It's a great situation for all manufacturers.
 

Pvee

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Jun 3, 2011
I bought a couple amd RX 6600XT's for a system I built for someone. Paid 499.00 plus tax about three weeks ago.
Today they are around 800.00 plus on Newegg. I can't afford to build myself a system like that and i'm pretty sure most of the people I built systems for over the last ten years would not pay for a system like that. I bought a couple gtx1050's for around 139.00 a couple years ago and now they are around 300.00 and those are generally not used for mining.. I just hope there can be a solution that separates mining and gaming and design type work at some point.
 

OC-NightHawk

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Joined
May 13, 2003
I feel like mining is a higher % of all sales than some people think. Only cards efficient for mining are selling well (read when the price isn't ridiculous then are disappearing from the store in 1h). All other models are available in stores ... but we can already see a shortage of all models and prices are again going up. Prices in the EU and availability were even acceptable for many models for maybe 2 months. When RX6600XT was released then it cost about 20-30% less than it costs in the new deliveries. The same RX6700XT or Nvidia LHR models were already 20% cheaper than they are in the fresh deliveries. You can see how various brands are going up in all stores looking at price checker websites (I'm checking in the EU so can't say much about the US). RTX3070Ti after release could be found for ~820 EUR(inc VAT), now you can't find it below ~1100 EUR. Tomorrow I will probably get a white Strix RTX3070 which cost me ~900 EUR (inc 23% VAT). All other stores where it's available, have it for 1100 EUR+, and it's barely available.
It's funny but I set on auction my GTX1080Ti a couple of days ago and the auction ends today. I thought it's a good time to sell it. I highly doubt that some gamers are bidding when for about the same price can get new RX6600XT or RTX3060 which is about the same for gaming while having a lower hash rate.

What is weird for me is that people are talking about the crisis, problems because of covid, problems with jobs, high local inflation and other things like that ... and they jump on every new and highly overpriced electronics or buy expensive other things like cars, etc. much more than ~2 years ago. In Poland is not going well but somehow in this very large IT market, everything sells as long as the price is not really ridiculous like 70% above MSRP. In this situation, I see no reason why graphics cards or other electronics prices should go down ... it's selling great so who would lower profits? It's a great situation for all manufacturers.

For mining I am buying RX 6600 XT, RX 6700 XT, RX 6800, RX 6800 XT cards in that order of availability. I might also buy a GTX 1660 Super here and there. I know there are those out there still trying to buy the RTX 30 series cards but I'm just not interested in LHR cards or shelling out the money for a 3090 card. The only RX 6900 XT card I have was purchased first and foremost for gaming.

I think part of the problem is retailers like Newegg bundling cards with useless hardware that needlessly jacks up the price to get the card. Then they make it a lottery when really all they need to do is start limiting 1 per customer for 30 days like Microcenter.

- - - Auto-Merged Double Post - - -

I bought a couple amd RX 6600XT's for a system I built for someone. Paid 499.00 plus tax about three weeks ago.
Today they are around 800.00 plus on Newegg. I can't afford to build myself a system like that and i'm pretty sure most of the people I built systems for over the last ten years would not pay for a system like that. I bought a couple gtx1050's for around 139.00 a couple years ago and now they are around 300.00 and those are generally not used for mining.. I just hope there can be a solution that separates mining and gaming and design type work at some point.

No need. Right now most of the people buying the cards are FOMO. I have all the cards I am going to be using for now until I buy my own place in a year or two. The people now are buying the cards high, seeing the value of the coin crater because of fear and are probably going to dump their cards in a few weeks. You can already see Etherium's difficulty lowering.
 

Jorlain

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Joined
Jan 29, 2008
I still maintain that if people had the willpower to not pay ludicrous prices for this stuff, the prices would go down and everyone as a whole would win. I can't even imagine paying 1K+ for a non-flagship card. I don't understand how there's shortages with prices being so high. Maybe I'm just more of a pinch-penny than I thought I was?
 

stompah

Deep Pain Senior Member
 
Joined
Apr 16, 2001
I still maintain that if people had the willpower to not pay ludicrous prices for this stuff, the prices would go down and everyone as a whole would win. I can't even imagine paying 1K+ for a non-flagship card. I don't understand how there's shortages with prices being so high. Maybe I'm just more of a pinch-penny than I thought I was?
False desperation? Example: OMG my 2080Ti wont play XYZ game 4k @ 240fps!

I thought I was crazy for paying $760 for my 3080. I was looking for a $400 3070. I cannot imagine spending over $1,000 for a 3070 now. $1,500+ for a 3080Ti? Ouch.
 

Jorlain

Member
 
Joined
Jan 29, 2008
That's likely exactly what it is, and it still makes me cringe. I think I paid $600 for my 2080 Super right when the 3080 came out (because the 3080 was OOS), and I was content with that. It handles 3440x1440 well enough. But my kids need upgrades bad, and I'm not going to spend $600-$800 on a 1650\1660 TI for them. Good thing they're only 1080p. They'll just have to live with my hand-me-downs until the prices normalize a bit.
 

mackerel

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Joined
Mar 7, 2008
I'm still watching what's happening with interest. Pretty much given up on an affordable upgrade to 3070 this cycle.

I think the root cause of the problems is there are more people wanting to buy than there are GPUs. Even if pricing remained down somehow, supply would not be any different. The elevated pricing is a natural consequence of that.

Out of interest, how's GPUs availability doing? In the UK, generally speaking, you're not going to have an easy job finding nvidia in stock. The odd model is available here or there, but in practice they're remaining unobtanium. However, AMD GPUs have been available constantly for a while. Do people really don't want them? Or are they making enough to keep in stock? The thing is, they're roughly at price parity with nvidia for basic (non-RT) gaming performance. In other words, really badly priced.

I don't follow it too closely, but I've recently became aware of Mindfactory sales data again. They're a retailer in Germany who got better known for publishing their sales numbers for fanboys to argue over. Most notably in the GPU space, AMD overtook nvidia. Or should that be, nvidia supply has dried up. This may be consistent with rumours that another refresh to nvidia's lineup is on the horizon, and they're likely flipping production over to newer models and building up some stock for launch of those new models.

Intel are also trying to build up hype around their first Arc offering, still on for Q1 next year. I got a water bottle out of it so far, and a hoodie might also be on its way at some point. I'm also going to try for one of 300 GPUs they're giving away but that'll be a long play.
 

Jorlain

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Joined
Jan 29, 2008
GPUs are unobtainium in the US. About the best you can get without being completely robbed is either a GT 730 or 1030. I haven't seen an AMD GPU in stock for over a year. Sure, you can find other cards if you're willing to pay scalpers or luck out on a lottery, but its slim pickings. My vendor won't even supply me with cards anymore.
 

Woomack

Benching Team Leader
 
 
 
 
Joined
Jan 2, 2005
Actually, if you dig deep enough and know where to look for then you can buy both, Nvidia and AMD from popular retailers. All that matters is to know where and when to order. The only problem are the prices as they're going up for 2 months now. When people are going to pay then why to lower the prices? There was a price drop around August when I got 2x RX6600XT, RX6700XT, and RTX3070.

The UK has an additional problem because of Brexit but it affects everything else too. In Germany, only some stores have regular deliveries. I'm not sure how one of the largest, so Caseking, has worse availability than electro markets in Poland. I guess there is also a problem with people who are making orders for all these stores. In Poland is the same, some, in theory, the largest stores have nothing, while others have constant deliveries.

The best thing was to register in the EVGA store a while ago and just wait as they sell everything at low prices. It may take some time but there is no loss in registering.

False desperation? Example: OMG my 2080Ti wont play XYZ game 4k @ 240fps!

I thought I was crazy for paying $760 for my 3080. I was looking for a $400 3070. I cannot imagine spending over $1,000 for a 3070 now. $1,500+ for a 3080Ti? Ouch.

Funny is that most who replaced their older cards for highly overpriced new models, still can't play at 4K and high FPS ;)
In the EU, $1k for a 3070 is not bad actually :)
 

mackerel

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Joined
Mar 7, 2008
Actually, if you dig deep enough and know where to look for then you can buy both, Nvidia and AMD from popular retailers. All that matters is to know where and when to order.

Well, that is still the problem.

I do have to partially correct myself. I just had a look around more sellers than I usually do. One lesser known one does have stock of 3060 and 3070, with not too horrific pricing. Let's just call it, expected bad. If you need a gaming system now, you could make do. I don't know how long they had them, and there's only a handful of units. Amazon UK themselves (not marketplace) are selling 3060 at what others are selling 3070 at.

For the first time ever I've seen a 6800 XT listed in stock! Then I saw the pricing and understood why. It was on the high end of a 3080 price, nudging into 3080 Ti pricing.

I think people go straight to the bigger places first when looking, so they're more likely to sell out.
 

Nebulous

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Joined
Oct 11, 2002
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The Empire State
At this rate, I'll never get a new gpu. Ain't noway in hell I'm going to pay double MSRP. My gaming days are slowly coming to an end :-/
 

stompah

Deep Pain Senior Member
 
Joined
Apr 16, 2001
At this rate, I'll never get a new gpu. Ain't noway in hell I'm going to pay double MSRP. My gaming days are slowly coming to an end :-/

You do have to understand that the original NVIDIA/AMD MSRP is no longer a thing (Except for Founder's/AMD Direct.) Example the $499 MSRP on the 3070 is long gone. Prices are now at $600+ for a 3070. This is now the AIB Company's MSRP.

Realistically, NVIDIA's MSRP to performance ratio skewed too far to the less expensive side. The 3080 should have released at $899, 3070 at $699, 3060Ti at $599. This would have made the potential profit margin that a scalper makes skinnier and possibly not worth the shipping and sale fees. Also would have had miners calculating the return on investment timelines differently.

Instead what has happened is that manufacturers saw that consumers are willing to pay scalped prices and raised their prices accordingly. The 3080Ti shockingly has an "MSRP" of $1199 just like the 2080Ti did.



At this point it may be best for you to wait for Ethereum's Proof of Stake to go into effect causing a mining GPU sell off and/or next gens to come out.

Did you sign up for any EVGA waitlists? That was gold.

In the meantime keep checking NewEgg's Shuffle. Today they had an EVGA 3060 and 550w PSU combo for $475. Cheap sell the PSU for $40-50 and get a decent deal on the 3060.

Tomorrow they will have this for $540: https://www.newegg.com/gigabyte-gef...er-2-0/p/N82E16814932468?Item=N82E16814932468
 

Woomack

Benching Team Leader
 
 
 
 
Joined
Jan 2, 2005
Guys in the US should be happy that don't have multiple sub-distributors on the way and +19-25% VAT ;)

RTX3060Ti XC LHR from the EVGA waitlist cost me ~$680, because this is the price with VAT in the EU EVGA store... and was shipped from Taiwan anyway. EVGA also translates 1 USD = 1 EUR, when EUR costs more. If I wanted to sell it now then I would get about $840 and I bet it wouldn't last long on any local auction.

I sold Vega 56 for ~$650 and GTX1080Ti for ~$650, what covered RTX3070+RTX3060Ti so even though new cards are overpriced then I find it a pretty good exchange. All my other "new" cards were at a reasonable prices too and right now I have 10 in total. 3 were from Danmark, 2 from Germany, 1 from EVGA, 4 from local stores.

If I wanted to order anything from Newegg then only duty/shipping costs would be around $200+ and now they are adding our local VAT to everything shipped to the EU.

@ mackerel
Don't look at Amazon, they have sick prices and problems with availability. You can order and wait for weeks for the card.
Check sites like https://geizhals.eu/ or https://skinflint.co.uk/ and you find many offers ... just not always good prices.