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AMD going 20nm this year?

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Cant say I know anyone that thinks that way... (or did I miss a post in this thread! :p).

Can you explain how with a die shrink, and more die's per wafer, the price goes up? Due to the lithography are there more errors or something? Do explain. :)
 
WHY is the question. WHY would that be? Is it because of the die shrink (article doesnt say squat)? My question is WHY would moving to a smaller process yield less profit? That link Im not sure answers anything.
 
Here's a little food for thought. Process shrink IMHO is not the "fix all" that everyone thinks it is. There's this presumption that by shrinking down to 20nm that performance will go up. That's not necessarily true. There needs to be a simultaneous design change as well. Now add in the fact that as we hit 20nm and lower, without changes to the materials used (i.e. silicon) it becomes less and less profitable to manufacture chips and CPU prices will go higher and higher.

Smaller DIE = lower cost not higher. You are thinking of just basic economics in which you charge more for the best stuff. That is true in computers, to a point. The problem is that you dont buy 1000 CPUs at $160 a pop. and expect to sell them over the next 2-3 years. If you cant sell 1000 CPUS NOW you dont buy that many. Because in a year that wont cost that much.

1 year turn around is a best case scenario. Certain things differ from that. Optical drives, cases and many peripherals. IB was looked for from the start with SB. IMHO, SB is the better buy assuming it saves you money. (Prices drop because people do have to sell off old stock.. however, SB is still better for the average user, just clocks better *unless* under cold. (which was a limitation designed into SB...but don't get me started...cache multi was directly equal to SB core multi. Not so on IB heance the free +10X multis.)

I heard rumor that with IB 22nm there having a lower yield.
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-ivy-bridge-cpu-processor-supply,15421.html
Rumored Ivy Bridge Production Woes, Intel Denies Shortages

Your link mentions the rumour and also provides evidence it might not be true. By bringing it up you skew appearance into putting merit behind the accusation that yields are low, despite the same article claiming IB sales are so high it is fast becoming half of Intel's revenue.

I am not saying that Intel would tell the truth, but considering they have how many models available now, and did they just release 13 more or is that in the pipe? I forget, time is a weird thing when you hit 40 lol. I see no reason to doubt them. Would be great if they outsourced FABs so we could compare information from other sources, but it is all closed book.

I just hit newegg for 3rd gen core products and see 9 available purchase options. In fact I didnt even have to dial down to CPUs, I hit PC hardware and got a "shop for 3rd gen" link right there. Newegg is first to go out of stock when something is so "in demand" as Intel claims and obviously not in short supply as rumours say. So I say BS on that rumour.

they might be having FAB issues, not saying that, they are not having supply issues. You want an IB, go buy one. They are available EVERYWHERE.


EDIT: I could get into all kinds of discussion about how IB sales are high because so many skipped SB (or vica versa), except enthusiasts of course which bought both. Could get into the solder vs paste issue on the cores driving sales down to release enthusiast purchases and make more models available for the Dell/HP crowd, all kinds of theories, none of which are substantiated. I like theory don't get me wrong, I find theory way more interesting than boring statistics. (Except in conjuction with theory;) ) But thats not this case :)
 
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Smaller DIE = lower cost not higher. You are thinking of just basic economics in which you charge more for the best stuff. That is true in computers, to a point. The problem is that you dont buy 1000 CPUs at $160 a pop. and expect to sell them over the next 2-3 years. If you cant sell 1000 CPUS NOW you dont buy that many. Because in a year that wont cost that much.

1 year turn around is a best case scenario. Certain things differ from that. Optical drives, cases and many peripherals. IB was looked for from the start with SB. IMHO, SB is the better buy assuming it saves you money. (Prices drop because people do have to sell off old stock.. however, SB is still better for the average user, just clocks better *unless* under cold. (which was a limitation designed into SB...but don't get me started...cache multi was directly equal to SB core multi. Not so on IB heance the free +10X multis.)



Your link mentions the rumour and also provides evidence it might not be true. By bringing it up you skew appearance into putting merit behind the accusation that yields are low, despite the same article claiming IB sales are so high it is fast becoming half of Intel's revenue.

I am not saying that Intel would tell the truth, but considering they have how many models available now, and did they just release 13 more or is that in the pipe? I forget, time is a weird thing when you hit 40 lol. I see no reason to doubt them. Would be great if they outsourced FABs so we could compare information from other sources, but it is all closed book.

I just hit newegg for 3rd gen core products and see 9 available purchase options. In fact I didnt even have to dial down to CPUs, I hit PC hardware and got a "shop for 3rd gen" link right there. Newegg is first to go out of stock when something is so "in demand" as Intel claims and obviously not in short supply as rumours say. So I say BS on that rumour.

they might be having FAB issues, not saying that, they are not having supply issues. You want an IB, go buy one. They are available EVERYWHERE.


EDIT: I could get into all kinds of discussion about how IB sales are high because so many skipped SB (or vica versa), except enthusiasts of course which bought both. Could get into the solder vs paste issue on the cores driving sales down to release enthusiast purchases and make more models available for the Dell/HP crowd, all kinds of theories, none of which are substantiated. I like theory don't get me wrong, I find theory way more interesting than boring statistics. (Except in conjuction with theory;) ) But thats not this case :)

Give me a bit to track down the link.

Edit - Until then I'll leave you to peruse this.

 
WHY is the question. WHY would that be? Is it because of the die shrink (article doesnt say squat)? My question is WHY would moving to a smaller process yield less profit? That link Im not sure answers anything.

WHY Globalfoundries and intel won't go into detail it's triad secret's, if transistor shrinking was easy and perfect there would be no cost.

WHY they just don't give away all there triad secrets.

Cost has gone up with IB vs SB intel's 22nm tri-gate. 2-3% increase per die. IB went up $10
http://download.intel.com/newsroom/kits/22nm/pdfs/22nm-Details_Presentation.pdf

Globalfoundries, Others Set to Use Fully-Depleted SOI with 14nm, 20nm Chips.
Cost may go up for AMD because there is more processing of fully-Depleted SOI

If AMD and intel have a yield problem cost go up also, yield problems are caused by imperfections on the die.
 
Thxed you both. Interesting info. Will have to look into that.

Obviously RD cost more over time (inflation) and bypassing certain size dimensions DOES lead to an increase in cost because you can no longer use the same materials. I assumed the HighK gate metal they said being used for 20nm meant that they achieved it with same substance. Didn't realize it actually made a differnce before what said to be the barrier before.

MY bad.

Thanks for the refresher course in economics and internet research :) I will look into this more.

Oh.. an aside, materials may go up, but #persquarearea still goes up also. Historically it has been fiscally prudent to shrink dies.

But as I said I need to look into it more. Thanks for the stuff to look up :thup:
 
Wow, why so much higher? I don't get it either, Smaller DIE = more per wafer.

Everyone is assuming that as the process size shrinks each wafer cost is the same or only a little more and since more chips are on the wafer that means cost goes down. The fallacy in that is the assumption the wafer costs are the same. Actually wafer costs rise significantly as the process goes down. I'm trying to dig up the presentation by if I remember correctly NVidia discussing the problems with die shrinks and reduced profits per chip.

Edit -

http://www.techdesignforums.com/eda/technique/computational-scaling-implications-for-design/
 
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EDIT: I could get into all kinds of discussion about how IB sales are high because so many skipped SB (or vica versa), except enthusiasts of course which bought both. Could get into the solder vs paste issue on the cores driving sales down to release enthusiast purchases and make more models available for the Dell/HP crowd, all kinds of theories, none of which are substantiated. I like theory don't get me wrong, I find theory way more interesting than boring statistics. (Except in conjuction with theory;) ) But thats not this case :)

IB cost more than sandy bridge k for k and newegg just got the 3770k in stock this week ive been keeping track and the 3770k is out of stock more than it's in stock at newegg and microcenter the 3570k is never out of stock.

How do you know the sales are high for IB where did you get that information intel keep's that a secret.
 
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How do you know the sails are high for IB where did you get that information intel keep's that a secret.
Intel said Intel sales are high.

Stock price went from 23 something last year to 27 this year?



I assume you meant sales but I can understand the difference when listening to PR pieces. (Not a bust on you just an attempt at humour)


Little confused by your link.

fully depleted silcon is too expensive "we dont use that" according to the PDF. Yet 2-3 panels later... trigate technology relies on fully Depleted silicon.

So they DINT use it, but now they do.. why obfuscate? I hate PR pieces.

Anywho.. Yes I see your point about reduction of size introducing new costs, however thanks to inflation, R&D costs go up regardless of die shrink. IB launched at only what 10-20 bucks more than most places were selling SB for?

One must consider the ethereal quality of PC component prices when considering costs. Not only space but time. CPUS used to cost thousands of dollars. Now they are a few hundred at most unless you are going nutty. Despite R&D costs going up because of inflation, despite component cost going up because of inflation. IB is still cheaper than SB was based on SB launch prices. Right?

Why is that? Despite the R&D (a cost of doing PC business) despite the component cost, (actually incremental when you consider the amount of each material being used per chip) you still get an extra XX chips per wafer.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/5789/the-ipad-24-review-32nm-a5-tested/

talking about ipad CPUs, but emphasizes the point in which he does also talk about. Couldn't find a good scale method but 45nm to 32nm hones in the point. Wafers are round. smaller the chip the more you can fit on it. (Why are wafers round why not square?)

45nm wafers produce 579 chips. 32nm 1019. Same cost of materials going in. almost twice that coming out.

You can increase cost and still come out even with a die shrink. Up to a 75% increase actually from 45nm to 32nm....) So yes.. the end users point of die shrink = lower cost is valid.

I wont go into details, but a 75% production increase even skewing it with a increased failure rate, and increase material base, still makes money.

Now all of a sudden Intel is an altruistic company that sells Ivy Bridge at a loss because it sucks? OF course they are making money, their stocks show it. IT fluctuates sure, but it is a currently volatile market and a company is not solely what its stock price is I get that.

Back to AMD though a company that ALSO does not sell things at a loss to improve market share. But does sell defective product in the hopes that people will buy them and try and unlock them into quasi function units. No warranty needed or provided. Saves a few hundred mill.

Neat idea..

EDIT: Sorry Bubba I took more than a half hour to write my post so didnt see yours. Bringing nvidia into the conversation though is not exactly relevant. Since, we know they had more issues with anyone with die shrinks including astronomically high fail rates. FAB difficulties or design??? No idea. I am not that smart. What I am saying is this is about CPU not GPUs. This is an AB conversation so C your way out.

(just an attempt at humour ;) if offended I can provide a 1-800 number for you to call , if it passes the filters. Seriously though, it was just a joke, it fit perfectly I could not resist, the 1-800 thing also a joke, relax, smoke something, but seriously this is a CPU discussion right? Completely different architecture. I do not see anyone in this thread complaining that 22nm SRAM is too high cost and has FAB failure issues.

In fact I dont see nVidia complaining about after their little snafu. If you linked to source not uploaded to imageshack you might get a more intelligent response.
 
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Intel said Intel sales are high.

Stock price went from 23 something last year to 27 this year?



I assume you meant sales but I can understand the difference when listening to PR pieces. (Not a bust on you just an attempt at humour)


Little confused by your link.

fully depleted silcon is too expensive "we dont use that" according to the PDF. Yet 2-3 panels later... trigate technology relies on fully Depleted silicon.

So they DINT use it, but now they do.. why obfuscate? I hate PR pieces.

Anywho.. Yes I see your point about reduction of size introducing new costs, however thanks to inflation, R&D costs go up regardless of die shrink. IB launched at only what 10-20 bucks more than most places were selling SB for?

One must consider the ethereal quality of PC component prices when considering costs. Not only space but time. CPUS used to cost thousands of dollars. Now they are a few hundred at most unless you are going nutty. Despite R&D costs going up because of inflation, despite component cost going up because of inflation. IB is still cheaper than SB was based on SB launch prices. Right?

Why is that? Despite the R&D (a cost of doing PC business) despite the component cost, (actually incremental when you consider the amount of each material being used per chip) you still get an extra XX chips per wafer.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/5789/the-ipad-24-review-32nm-a5-tested/

talking about ipad CPUs, but emphasizes the point in which he does also talk about. Couldn't find a good scale method but 45nm to 32nm hones in the point. Wafers are round. smaller the chip the more you can fit on it. (Why are wafers round why not square?)

45nm wafers produce 579 chips. 32nm 1019. Same cost of materials going in. almost twice that coming out.

You can increase cost and still come out even with a die shrink. Up to a 75% increase actually from 45nm to 32nm....) So yes.. the end users point of die shrink = lower cost is valid.

I wont go into details, but a 75% production increase even skewing it with a increased failure rate, and increase material base, still makes money.

Now all of a sudden Intel is an altruistic company that sells Ivy Bridge at a loss because it sucks? OF course they are making money, their stocks show it. IT fluctuates sure, but it is a currently volatile market and a company is not solely what its stock price is I get that.

Back to AMD though a company that ALSO does not sell things at a loss to improve market share. But does sell defective product in the hopes that people will buy them and try and unlock them into quasi function units. No warranty needed or provided. Saves a few hundred mill.

Neat idea..

EDIT: Sorry Bubba I took more than a half hour to write my post so didnt see yours. Bringing nvidia into the conversation though is not exactly relevant. Since, we know they had more issues with anyone with die shrinks including astronomically high fail rates. FAB difficulties or design??? No idea. I am not that smart. What I am saying is this is about CPU not GPUs. This is an AB conversation so C your way out.

(just an attempt at humour ;) if offended I can provide a 1-800 number for you to call , if it passes the filters. Seriously though, it was just a joke, it fit perfectly I could not resist, the 1-800 thing also a joke, relax, smoke something, but seriously this is a CPU discussion right? Completely different architecture. I do not see anyone in this thread complaining that 22nm SRAM is too high cost and has FAB failure issues.

In fact I dont see nVidia complaining about after their little snafu. If you linked to source not uploaded to imageshack you might get a more intelligent response.

intels stock does not reflect IB, it has only been out 2 months for retail not OEM
and you don't know what products are selling well or not

launch of the SB k was $10 less than IB

we are talking about the transistor shrink costing more money because it's getting way more complicated adding more time and cost to make.

Depleted SOI with 14nm, 20nm Chips

Depleted SOI is a type of transistor.
Floating body eliminated and sub-threshold slope improved
Requires expensive extremely-thin SOI wafer, there is more (FinFET).
 

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Intel said Intel sales are high.

Stock price went from 23 something last year to 27 this year?



I assume you meant sales but I can understand the difference when listening to PR pieces. (Not a bust on you just an attempt at humour)


Little confused by your link.

fully depleted silcon is too expensive "we dont use that" according to the PDF. Yet 2-3 panels later... trigate technology relies on fully Depleted silicon.

So they DINT use it, but now they do.. why obfuscate? I hate PR pieces.

Anywho.. Yes I see your point about reduction of size introducing new costs, however thanks to inflation, R&D costs go up regardless of die shrink. IB launched at only what 10-20 bucks more than most places were selling SB for?

One must consider the ethereal quality of PC component prices when considering costs. Not only space but time. CPUS used to cost thousands of dollars. Now they are a few hundred at most unless you are going nutty. Despite R&D costs going up because of inflation, despite component cost going up because of inflation. IB is still cheaper than SB was based on SB launch prices. Right?

Why is that? Despite the R&D (a cost of doing PC business) despite the component cost, (actually incremental when you consider the amount of each material being used per chip) you still get an extra XX chips per wafer.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/5789/the-ipad-24-review-32nm-a5-tested/

talking about ipad CPUs, but emphasizes the point in which he does also talk about. Couldn't find a good scale method but 45nm to 32nm hones in the point. Wafers are round. smaller the chip the more you can fit on it. (Why are wafers round why not square?)

45nm wafers produce 579 chips. 32nm 1019. Same cost of materials going in. almost twice that coming out.

You can increase cost and still come out even with a die shrink. Up to a 75% increase actually from 45nm to 32nm....) So yes.. the end users point of die shrink = lower cost is valid.

I wont go into details, but a 75% production increase even skewing it with a increased failure rate, and increase material base, still makes money.

Now all of a sudden Intel is an altruistic company that sells Ivy Bridge at a loss because it sucks? OF course they are making money, their stocks show it. IT fluctuates sure, but it is a currently volatile market and a company is not solely what its stock price is I get that.

Back to AMD though a company that ALSO does not sell things at a loss to improve market share. But does sell defective product in the hopes that people will buy them and try and unlock them into quasi function units. No warranty needed or provided. Saves a few hundred mill.

Neat idea..

EDIT: Sorry Bubba I took more than a half hour to write my post so didnt see yours. Bringing nvidia into the conversation though is not exactly relevant. Since, we know they had more issues with anyone with die shrinks including astronomically high fail rates. FAB difficulties or design??? No idea. I am not that smart. What I am saying is this is about CPU not GPUs. This is an AB conversation so C your way out.

(just an attempt at humour ;) if offended I can provide a 1-800 number for you to call , if it passes the filters. Seriously though, it was just a joke, it fit perfectly I could not resist, the 1-800 thing also a joke, relax, smoke something, but seriously this is a CPU discussion right? Completely different architecture. I do not see anyone in this thread complaining that 22nm SRAM is too high cost and has FAB failure issues.

In fact I dont see nVidia complaining about after their little snafu. If you linked to source not uploaded to imageshack you might get a more intelligent response.

Actually when it comes to fab, wafer costs and yield are just as relevant to GPU's as they are to CPU's. One of the major additions to the costs of going to 28nm and below are the fact that you need to shift to ever increasingly complex lithography processes and that does add cost no matter which "type" of chip you make. Also as the node process has "shrunk" yields have gone down and not by an insignificant amount which means additional costs refining the process to bring yield levels up to the same level you were seeing at the previous node. While you keep bringing up Intel and really this is about TSMC and Global Foundries (AMD suppliers) I'll just say this. Just because the CPU you purchase is only $10 more than the previous gen doesn't mean that the profit margin for the new CPU's initial release is the same as the last gen's initial release profit margin (I say initial release because as the process matures the costs always go down for each node level). The've hit the point now where going below 28nm has added complexities that add to the cost in a major way -

http://chipdesignmag.com/sld/blog/2011/04/28/manufacturing-challenges-at-22nm-and-in-stacked-die/

Quote -
These problems become much more acute as the semiconductor industry moves from the 32/28nm process node, which is just beginning to ramp up, to 22/20nm, and is now under development by leading semiconductor companies and foundries. Issues that used to be dealt with sequentially must now be dealt with concurrently across the entire supply chain
 
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intels stock does not reflect IB, it has only been out 2 months for retail not OEM
and you don't know what products are selling well or not

launch of the SB k was $10 less than IB

we are talking about the transistor shrink costing more money because it's getting way more complicated adding more time and cost to make.

Depleted SOI with 14nm, 20nm Chips

Depleted SOI is a type of transistor.
Floating body eliminated and sub-threshold slope improved
Requires expensive extremely-thin SOI wafer, there is more (FinFET).

reread this

http://download.intel.com/newsroom/kits/22nm/pdfs/22nm-Details_Presentation.pdf

and look at my next post.
 
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Actually when it comes to fab, wafer costs and yield are just as relevant to GPU's as they are to CPU's. One of the major additions to the costs of going to 28nm and below are the fact that you need to shift to ever increasingly complex lithography processes and that does add cost no matter which "type" of chip you make. Also as the node process has "shrunk" yields have gone down and not by an insignificant amount which means additional costs refining the process to bring yield levels up to the same level you were seeing at the previous node. While you keep bringing up Intel and really this is about TSMC and Global Foundries (AMD suppliers) I'll just say this. Just because the CPU you purchase is only $10 more than the previous gen doesn't mean that the profit margin for the new CPU's initial release is the same as the last gen's initial release profit margin (I say initial release because as the process matures the costs always go down for each node level). The've hit the point now where going below 28nm has added complexities that add to the cost in a major way -

http://chipdesignmag.com/sld/blog/2011/04/28/manufacturing-challenges-at-22nm-and-in-stacked-die/

Quote -

Different arch, but I get your point. I am not a CE so I can't define it for you. As a consumer I can say this.

If reducing die size was unprofitable why would either company pursue it?
 
^^^ You're final line there is the best argument/reason I've read in ages. A few good words of wisdom ;)
 
intels stock does not reflect IB, it has only been out 2 months for retail not OEM
and you don't know what products are selling well or not

launch of the SB k was $10 less than IB

we are talking about the transistor shrink costing more money because it's getting way more complicated adding more time and cost to make.

Depleted SOI with 14nm, 20nm Chips

Depleted SOI is a type of transistor.
Floating body eliminated and sub-threshold slope improved
Requires expensive extremely-thin SOI wafer, there is more (FinFET).


Your looking at Depleted, yes intel uses depleted however i posted the above transistor is Depleted SOI and intel show what it looks like and how it works and how much more work to make it.
 
Different arch, but I get your point. I am not a CE so I can't define it for you. As a consumer I can say this.

If reducing die size was unprofitable why would either company pursue it?
Some time things get more expensive for the sake of saving battery power, wall power and increasing performance, shrinking transistors increases there speed.

It's just getting more expensive and the companies are grasping at straws

The choice for AMD is planar transistor or FinFET transistor and FinFET is intels other 3D idea.
 
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