CPU 629

The news release headline reads “Intel Adds Momentum, AMD Makes Long-Term Gains in Q1 Microprocessor Market”

The first part is right, the second part is at best spin.

Take a look at the chart (based on iSuppli’s own numbers):

AMD Marketshare

Please note that this is revenue share, not unit sales, so the share isn’t impacted by seasonal shifts in production.

It’s clear that AMD was popping along quite nicely at a little better than a 16% revenue share during 2006, then had a huge 30%+ drop in Q1 2007. AMD got back about half that the next quarter, then improved a bit the next two quarters, only to suffer a 10% drop in Q1 2008.

I think an objective conclusion from the data is that AMD has half-recovered from a huge hit.

That’s not what iSuppli said:

“AMD’s PC microprocessor product portfolio has become much stronger during the last year, particularly on the desktop side,” [the iSuppli analyst] said. “Customers clearly are responding to AMD’s moves. At the beginning of the year we saw AMD add the quad-core Phenom microprocessors to its desktop portfolio, which it has since built on with tri-core and dual-core flavors, for the prosumer and business markets.”

Hmmmm. The only clear customer response I see to AMD’s moves at the beginning of the year is that revenues went down. Then again, this guy sees dual-core Phenoms out there.

To be fair, the current quarter will be the first quarter in which Phenoms have a chance at making some real revenue impact, but given that the vast majority of AMD production is still K8-generation product slowly drifting downward in price; Phenoms will probably be more like a plug on a leaking, sinking ship than a pump.

I don’t know, reading that kind of spin is like reading a piece on how much better New Orleans has gotten the last year. Well, yeah, it’s gotten better, but they’re still in recovery.


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